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Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise: the case of Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher P. Ball

    (Quinnipiac University, USA)

  • Javier Reyes

    (University of Arkansas, USA)

Abstract

This paper uses simple analytics to show the similarities and differences between inflation targeting and fear of floating in emerging markets. The analytics provide well-defined predictions for the behaviour of exchange rates and relevant monetary variables under both regimes. This allows us to distinguish clearly one regime from another and empirically test whether or not a country that targets inflation also exhibits a fear of floating. We analyse the recent experience in Mexico where the authorities now claim to be following an inflation targeting regime. Mexico is also one of the countries claimed to exhibit a fear of floating. Using data from Banco de México, we first confirm that by standard measures Mexico exhibits fear of floating. Second, we show that Mexico is inflation targeting and discuss the relationship and test for a distinction between the two. Finally, we conclude by discussing our results and their implications for other emerging market inflation targeters. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher P. Ball & Javier Reyes, 2004. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise: the case of Mexico," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 49-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:9:y:2004:i:1:p:49-69
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.221
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Rebeca I. Muñoz Torres & David Shepherd, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and the Consistency of Monetary Policy Decisions in Mexico: an Empirical Analysis with Discrete Choice Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 21-46, December.
    3. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2014. "Gauging exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 155-166.
    4. Jesus M. Garcia-Iglesias & Rebeca Muñoz Torres & George Saridakis, 2013. "Did the Bank of Mexico follow a systematic behaviour in its transition to an inflation targeting regime?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1205-1213, July.
    5. Giray Gozgor, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy Rules: Further Evidence from the Case of Turkey," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(5), pages 1-7.
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    7. Best, Gabriela, 2013. "Fear of floating or monetary policy as usual? A structural analysis of Mexico's monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 45-62.
    8. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:149-160 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gilberto Libanio, 2005. ""Good governance" in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td277, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    10. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'," Studies in Economics 0605, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. Hanen Gharbi,, 2005. "La gestion des taux de change dans les pays émergents: la leçon des expériences récentes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-06, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    13. Reginaldo Pinto Nogueira Junior, 2009. "Inflation Targeting and Fear of Floating in Brazil, Mexico and South Korea," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 10(2), pages 195-209.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Constraints on the Design and Implementation of Monetary Policy in Oil Economies; The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 08/142, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Kosta Josifidis & Emilija Beker Pucar & Slađana Srdić & Gabriela Ivan, 2014. "Inflation Targeting in Advanced vs. Emerging Economies before and after the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 79-106, Februar.
    17. Ball, Christopher P. & Reyes, Javier, 2008. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise? A broader perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 308-326, March.
    18. Nogueira Jr., Reginaldo P. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "Fear of Floating in Brazil: Did Inflation Targeting matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 255-266, December.

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