IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries

  • Gabrisch, Hurbert

    ()

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

  • Orlowski, Lucjan

    ()

    (John F. Welch College of Business, Sacred Heart University)

  • Pusch, Toralf

    ()

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

This study examines the key drivers of sovereign default risk in five euro area periphery countries and three euro-candidates that are currently pursuing independent monetary policies. We argue that the recent proliferation of sovereign risk premiums stems from both domestic and international sources. We focus on contagion effects of external financial crisis on sovereign risk premiums in these countries, arguing that the countries with weak fundamentals and fragile financial institutions are particularly vulnerable to such effects. The domestic fiscal vulnerabilities include: economic recession, less efficient government spending and a rising public debt. External ÔpushÕ factors entail increasing liquidity- and counter-party risks in international banking, as well as risk-hedging appetites of international investors embedded in local currency depreciation against the US Dollar. We develop a model capturing the internal and external determinants of sovereign risk premiums and test for the examined country groups. The results lead us to caution against premature fiscal consolidation in the aftermath of the global economic crisis, since such policy might actually worsen sovereign default risk. The model works well for the euro-periphery countries; it is less robust for the euro-candidates that upon a future euro adoption will have to pursue real economy growth oriented policies in order to mitigate a potential increase in sovereign default risk.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.sacredheart.edu/she/pdf/wp2012_002.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Dr. Khawaja Mamun)


File Function: First version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business in its series Working Papers with number 2012002.

as
in new window

Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:she:wpaper:2012002
Contact details of provider: Postal: 5151 Park Avenue, Fairfield, Connecticut 06825-1000
Phone: (203) 371-7880
Web page: http://www.sacredheart.edu/pages/15_john_f_welch_college_of_business.cfm

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  3. Volker Wieland, 2010. "Commentary: Fiscal Stimulus and the Promise of Future Spending Cuts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 39-50, March.
  4. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Mart�n & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 622, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
  7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
  8. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2009. "The Cyclical Reaction of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: The Role of Modelling Choices and Data Vintages," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 39-72, 03.
  9. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
  10. Orlowski, Lucjan T, 2008. "Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," MPRA Paper 12696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
  12. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
  13. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 47-82, 02.
  14. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Carmen Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia, 2015. "The Liquidation of Government Debt," IMF Working Papers 15/7, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 0369, European Central Bank.
  17. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. Christina D Romer, 2009. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 132-135, July.
  19. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Simone Salotti & Luigi Marattin, 2010. "The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2010-04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  21. Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
  22. Carl Gjersem, 2003. "Financial Market Integration in the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 368, OECD Publishing.
  23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  24. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
  25. Marco Buti & Paul Noord, 2004. "Fiscal Discretion and Elections in the Early Years of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 737-756, November.
  26. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
  28. Gernot Müller & Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," IMF Working Papers 09/106, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Li L. Ong & Silvia Iorgova, 2008. "The Capital Markets of Emerging Europe; Institutions, Instruments and Investors," IMF Working Papers 08/103, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  31. Frankel, Jeffrey & Chinn, Menzie D., 2007. "Debt and Interest Rates: The U.S. and the Euro Area," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  32. Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February.
  33. Hallerberg, Mark & Wolff, Guntram B., 2006. "Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  34. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan, 2009. "Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers 2009001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:she:wpaper:2012002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr. Khawaja Mamun)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.