IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qed/wpaper/1351.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rates, Cross-border Travel, And Retailers: Theory And Empirics

Author

Listed:
  • Jen Baggs

    (University of Victoria)

  • Beverly Lapham
  • Loretta Fung

    (National Tsing Hua University)

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of nominal exchange rate movements on cross-border travel by consumers and on retail firms' sales. We develop a search-theoretic model of price-setting heterogeneous retailers and traveling consumers who face nominal exchange rate shocks. These exchange rate shocks act as both a supply side shock for retailers though imported input prices and a demand side shock though their effect on the propensity for consumers to cross the border and shop at foreign retail stores. The model provides predictions regarding relationships between firm and regional characteristics and the magnitude of the effects of nominal exchange rate fluctuations and resulting cross-border travel activity on retailers' sales. We use our theoretical framework to motivate an empirical methodology applied to Canadian firm and consumer level data from 1987 to 2007. Our findings indicate that an appreciation of the Canadian dollar substantially increases cross border travel which in turn has a significant negative effect on the sales of Canadian retailers. These effects diminish with the distance of the retailer from the border and with the shopping opportunities available at relevant US destinations. Using counterfactual experiments, we quantify the effects of more restrictive border controls after September 2001 which discouraged cross-border trips and reduced retailer losses from cross-border shopping as well as the effects of increased duty free allowances which raised cross-border trips and reduced retailer sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Jen Baggs & Beverly Lapham & Loretta Fung, 2015. "Exchange Rates, Cross-border Travel, And Retailers: Theory And Empirics," Working Paper 1351, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1351.pdf
    File Function: First version 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu, Yingying, 2017. "China’s electrical equipment manufacturing in the global value chain: A GVC income analysis based on World Input-Output Database (WIOD)," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 289-301.
    2. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dale T. Mortensen, 2005. "A Comment On "Price Dispersion, Inflation, And Welfare" By A. Head And A. Kumar," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. George Alessandria, 2004. "International Deviations From The Law Of One Price: The Role Of Search Frictions And Market Share," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1263-1291, November.
    5. Raff, Horst & Schmitt, Nicolas, 2009. "Buyer power in international markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 222-229, November.
    6. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    7. Gita Gopinath & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Nicholas Li, 2011. "International Prices, Costs, and Markup Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2450-2486, October.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2015. "The Morphology Of Price Dispersion," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1165-1206, November.
    9. Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt, 2012. "Imports and the structure of retail markets," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1431-1455, November.
    10. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    11. Holmberg, Stevan R. & Morgan, Kathryn Boe, 2003. "Franchise turnover and failure: New research and perspectives," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 403-418, May.
    12. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    13. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, February.
    14. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2014. "Welfare and Trade without Pareto," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 310-316, May.
    15. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    16. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
    17. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    18. Renáta Kosová & Francine Lafontaine, 2010. "Survival And Growth In Retail And Service Industries: Evidence From Franchised Chains," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 542-578, September.
    19. Baldwin, John R. Gu, Wulong, 2008. "Firm Turnover and Productivity Growth in the Canadian Retail Trade Sector," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2008053e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    20. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2009. "Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 393-421, May.
    21. Asplund, Marcus & Friberg, Richard & Wilander, Fredrik, 2007. "Demand and distance: Evidence on cross-border shopping," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 141-157, February.
    22. Andrew Eckert & Douglas West, 2008. "Firm Survival and Chain Growth in a Privatized Retail Liquor Store Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 32(1), pages 1-18, February.
    23. Burdett, Kenneth & Judd, Kenneth L, 1983. "Equilibrium Price Dispersion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 955-969, July.
    24. repec:hrv:faseco:30703875 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Beverly Lapham, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Dynamics of Retail Trade Industries on the U. S.-Canada Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1194-1206, September.
    26. Ambarish Chandra & Keith Head & Mariano Tappata, 2014. "The Economics of Cross-Border Travel," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 648-661, October.
    27. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "Border Effect or Country Effect? Seattle May Not Be So Far from Vancouver After All," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 219-241, January.
    28. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    29. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2011. "Pricing-to-Market and the Failure of Absolute PPP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 91-127, January.
    30. George Alessandria, 2009. "Consumer Search, Price Dispersion, And International Relative Price Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 803-829, August.
    31. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Quantifying Non-Tariff Trade Barriers: What Difference Did 9/11 Make to Canadian Cross-Border Shopping?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 36(4), pages 487-501, December.
    32. Jen Baggs, 2005. "Firm survival and exit in response to trade liberalization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1364-1383, November.
    33. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    34. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2010. "Are Service Firms Affected By Exchange Rate Movements?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 156-176, June.
    35. Papke, Leslie E & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1996. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(K) Plan Participation Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 619-632, Nov.-Dec..
    36. Boivin, Jean & Clark, Robert & Vincent, Nicolas, 2012. "Virtual borders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 327-335.
    37. Allen Head & Alok Kumar, 2005. "Price Dispersion, Inflation, And Welfare," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 533-572, May.
    38. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2006. "Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 748-758, November.
    39. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo.
    40. Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2017. "An Open-Economy Model With Money, Endogenous Search, And Heterogeneous Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1648-1670, October.
    41. Ferris, J. Stephen, 2000. "The Determinants of Cross Border Shopping: Implications for Tax Revenues and Institutional Change," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 4), pages 801-24, December.
    42. Faig, Miquel & Jerez, Belen, 2005. "A theory of commerce," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 60-99, May.
    43. Ferris, J. Stephen, 2000. "The Determinants of Cross Border Shopping: Implications for Tax Revenues and Institutional Change," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 53(4), pages 801-824, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Friberg, Richard & Steen, Frode & Ulsaker, Simen A., 2018. "Hump-shaped cross-price effects and the extensive margin in cross-border shopping," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 20/2019, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics, revised 23 Sep 2019.
    2. Beverly Lapham & Ayman Mnasri, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Competitive Search Approach," Working Paper 1418, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    3. Zhe Chen & Michael B. Devereux & Beverly Lapham, 2017. "The Canadian border and the US dollar: The impact of exchange rate changes on US retailers," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1525-1555, December.
    4. Piera Bello, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and border crossings: evidence from the Swiss-Italian border," IdEP Economic Papers 1701, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung & Beverly Lapham, 2016. "Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 635-666, August.
    2. Chahrour, Ryan & Stevens, Luminita, 2020. "Price dispersion and the border effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 135-146.
    3. Dvir, Eyal & Strasser, Georg, 2018. "Does marketing widen borders? Cross-country price dispersion in the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 134-149.
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    5. Chandra, Ambarish & Head, Keith & Tappata, Mariano, 2012. "Consumer Arbitrage Across a Porous Border," CEPR Discussion Papers 8730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Zhe Chen & Michael B. Devereux & Beverly Lapham, 2017. "The Canadian border and the US dollar: The impact of exchange rate changes on US retailers," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1525-1555, December.
    7. Baxter, Marianne & Landry, Anthony, 2017. "IKEA: Product, pricing, and pass-through," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 507-520.
    8. Mario Crucini & Christopher Telmer, 2020. "Microeconomic Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 22-40, October.
    9. Thomas M. Fullerton & Adam G. Walke, 2019. "Cross-Border Shopping and Employment Patterns in the Southwestern United States," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Ryan Chahrour & Luminita Stevens, 2015. "Equilibrium Price Dispersion and the Border Effect," Staff Report 522, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    12. Beck, Guenter W. & Kotz, Hans-Helmut & Zabelina, Natalia, 2020. "Price gaps at the border: Evidence from multi-country household scanner data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Luigi Paciello & Andrea Pozzi & Nicholas Trachter, 2019. "Price Dynamics With Customer Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 413-446, February.
    14. A. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2018. "Quality pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 87-102.
    15. Auer, Raphael A. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2016. "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 60-77.
    16. Dudley Cooke, 2019. "Consumer Search, Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 455-484, March.
    17. Boivin, Jean & Clark, Robert & Vincent, Nicolas, 2012. "Virtual borders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 327-335.
    18. Mario J. Crucini & Christopher I. Telmer, 2012. "Microeconomic Sources of Real Exchange Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 17978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Landry, Anthony, 2013. "Borders and Big Macs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 318-322.
    20. Bruno Versailles, 2012. "Market Integration and Border Effects in Eastern Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-01, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Price Differences; Cross-Border Shopping; Firm Dynamics; Exchange Rate Pass-Through;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Babcock (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qedquca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.