IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/not/notgep/08-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • David Greenaway
  • Richard Kneller
  • Xufei Zhang

Abstract

Using data on UK manufacturing firms, we examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on firm decisions on export market entry and export intensity. The use of micro data and new measures of exchange rate uncertainty enable us to test for hysteresis effects in a new way and to test the sensitivity of results to a range of different measures. The results show that exchange rate uncertainty has little effect on firms’ export participation but a significant impact on export intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • David Greenaway & Richard Kneller & Xufei Zhang, 2008. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK," Discussion Papers 08/42, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:08/42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/papers/2008/08-42.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu, 2007. "Industrial Linkages and Export Spillovers from FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 105-134, January.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    3. David Greenaway, & Richard Kneller, & Xufei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992. "The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
    6. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    7. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-5.
    8. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    9. Patrik Karpaty & Richard Kneller, 2011. "Demonstration or congestion? Export spillovers in Sweden," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 109-130, April.
    10. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages 134-161, February.
    11. Sourafel Girma & Avid Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2004. "Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 855-866, November.
    12. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo A. López & Huong D. Nguyen, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 972-995, November.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Roberto Alvarez & Ricardo A. López, 2015. "Foreign Technology Acquisition and Changes in the Real Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-628, April.
    4. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2015. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the margins of exports," Working Papers 15_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Abdul Rashid & Shahid Mahmood Waqar, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations, firm size, and export behavior: an empirical investigation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 609-625, October.
    6. Li, Yifan & Miao, Zhuang & Tuuli, Maxwell, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and import of intermediate inputs: Evidence from Chinese firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-134.
    7. Ricardo Lopez & Kathleen McQueeney, 2017. "Does Foreign Trade Facilitation Improve Firms’ Export Performance? A Microeconomic Analysis of Chilean Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 112, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    8. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    9. Baggs, Jen & Fung, Loretta & Lapham, Beverly, 2018. "Exchange rates, cross-border travel, and retailers: Theory and empirics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 59-79.
    10. Xiaohua Bao & Hailiang Huang & Larry D Qiu & Xiaozhuo Wang, 2022. "Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm-level evidence from China," Discussion Papers 2022-07, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Laura M. Werner, 2020. "Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1249-1278, March.
    12. Haeng-Sun Kim, 2019. "Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Exporting Decision in Risk-averse and Risk-taking Firms," Working Papers hal-02128335, HAL.
    13. Ricardo Lopez, 2015. "Long Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 86, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    14. Zhang, Hao & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2022. "Does trade cause fear of appreciation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller & Xufei Zhang, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Exports and FDI: A Microeconometric Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    2. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller & Xufei Zhang, 2012. "The effect of exchange rates on firm exports and the role of FDI," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 425-447, September.
    3. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and exchange rate : a firm-level investigation," Working Papers hal-00973044, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6151 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and export spillovers: Evidence from Vietnam," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-193, April.
    6. David Greenaway, & Richard Kneller, & Xufei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and Exchange Rate: A Firm-Level Investigation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01053170, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6151 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pekka Ilmakunnas & Satu Nurmi, 2010. "Dynamics of Export Market Entry and Exit," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(1), pages 101-126, March.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9941 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6151 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and exchange rate : a firm-level investigation," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00973044, HAL.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9941 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. René Belderbos & Vincent Van Roy & Leo Sleuwaegen, 2021. "Does trade participation limit domestic firms’ productivity gains from inward foreign direct investment?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 83-109, March.
    15. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2015. "Multi-product firms, exports and exchange rate policies. Evidence from an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 65751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sarah Guillou, 2008. "Exports and Exchange Rate: A Firm-Level Investigation. Workshop : International Activities and Firm Performance, 27-28 February 2008, Nottingham," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9941, Sciences Po.
    17. Yue Jin & Chen Chen & Zhanyi Shi, 2021. "Spillover Effect of FDI on Food Exports: Based on Firm-Level Analysis in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, April.
    18. Haeng-Sun KIM, 2016. "Firms' leverage and export market participation: Evidence from South Korea," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 148, pages 41-58.
    19. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller & Xufei Zhang, 2010. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Firm Exports: The Role of Imported Intermediate Inputs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(8), pages 961-986, August.
    20. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    21. Petrit Gashi & Iraj Hashi & Geoff Pugh, 2014. "Export behaviour of SMEs in transition countries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 407-435, February.
    22. Neil Foster & Roman Stöllinger & Carlo Altomonte & Richard Kneller, 2012. "The Trade-Productivity Nexus in the European Economy," FIW Specials series 005, FIW.
    23. Cees Beers & Gerben Panne, 2011. "Geography, knowledge spillovers and small firms’ exports: an empirical examination for The Netherlands," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 325-339, October.
    24. Muhammed BENLI, 2016. "FDI and export spillovers using Heckman’s two step approach: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing data," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 315-342, Winter.
    25. Ricardo Lopez, 2015. "Long Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 86, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate uncertainty; export share; hysteresis effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notgep:08/42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hilary Hughes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cgnotuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.