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Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Greenaway, David

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Kneller, Richard

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

Using data on UK manufacturing firms, we examine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on firm decisions on export market entry and export intensity. The use of micro data and new measures of exchange rate uncertainty enable us to test for hysteresis effects in a new way and to test the sensitivity of results to a range of different measures. The results show that exchange rate uncertainty has little effect on firms’ export participation but a significant impact on export intensity. We find that industry heterogeneity is important and there would be serious problems of aggregation using pooling and aggregate data.

Suggested Citation

  • Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2010. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Decisions in the UK," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 734-753.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0524
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu, 2007. "Industrial Linkages and Export Spillovers from FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 105-134, January.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
    3. David Greenaway, & Richard Kneller, & Xufei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Exports: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in the UK," Discussion Papers 07/13, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    4. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    5. Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992. "The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
    6. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    7. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-5.
    8. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    9. Patrik Karpaty & Richard Kneller, 2011. "Demonstration or congestion? Export spillovers in Sweden," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 109-130, April.
    10. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages 134-161, February.
    11. Sourafel Girma & Avid Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2004. "Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 855-866, November.
    12. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Industry Differences in the Effect of Export Market Entry: Learning by Exporting?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 416-432, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo A. López & Huong D. Nguyen, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 972-995, November.
    2. Baggs, Jen & Fung, Loretta & Lapham, Beverly, 2018. "Exchange rates, cross-border travel, and retailers: Theory and empirics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 59-79.
    3. Abdul Rashid & Shahid Mahmood Waqar, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations, firm size, and export behavior: an empirical investigation," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 609-625, October.
    4. Haeng-Sun Kim, 2019. "Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Exporting Decision in Risk-averse and Risk-taking Firms," Working Papers hal-02128335, HAL.
    5. Li, Yifan & Miao, Zhuang & Tuuli, Maxwell, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and import of intermediate inputs: Evidence from Chinese firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-134.
    6. Xiaohua Bao & Hailiang Huang & Larry D Qiu & Xiaozhuo Wang, 2022. "Exchange rate expectations and exports: Firm-level evidence from China," Discussion Papers 2022-07, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Ricardo Lopez & Kathleen McQueeney, 2017. "Does Foreign Trade Facilitation Improve Firms’ Export Performance? A Microeconomic Analysis of Chilean Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 112, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    9. Ricardo Lopez, 2015. "Long Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Imports of Intermediate Inputs: A Microeconometric Analysis of Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 86, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    10. Roberto Alvarez & Ricardo A. López, 2015. "Foreign Technology Acquisition and Changes in the Real Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 613-628, April.
    11. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2015. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the margins of exports," Working Papers 15_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. Tunc, Cengiz & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2017. "Not all firms react the same to exchange rate volatility? A firm level study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 417-430.
    13. Zhang, Hao & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2022. "Does trade cause fear of appreciation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-80.
    14. Laura M. Werner, 2020. "Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1249-1278, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Uncertainty; Export Share; Hysteresis Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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