IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/95665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Expenditure Structure of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad, Khalil
  • Ali, Amjad

Abstract

Demand side public policy plays a risk reducing role for imperfect sectors of the developing economies through public investment during liberalization. Public sector investment, composition and structure play an important role to determine the comparative advantage for the productive sector. This study explores the effect of trade liberalization and trade tax revenue on the expenditure structure of Pakistan during 1975-2016. Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach has been used for examining the long run co-integration among the expenditure structure and trade liberalization and Vector Error-Correction model is used for short run dynamics of the concerned variables. The empirical result shows that trade tax revenue has a positive impact on the expenditure structure in the long run but not in the short run. Trade liberalization, budget deficits and defense expenditure have negative associations with expenditure structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Amjad, 2019. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Expenditure Structure of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95665/1/MPRA_paper_95665.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Ali Kemal, 2007. "A Fresh Assessment of the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan : Causes, Consequences, and Linkages with the Formal Economy," Microeconomics Working Papers 22200, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Estela Sáenz & Marcela Sabaté & M. Gadea, 2013. "Trade openness and public expenditure. The Spanish case, 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 173-195, March.
    4. Shelton, Cameron A., 2007. "The size and composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2230-2260, December.
    5. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    6. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "The influence of globalization on taxes and social policy: An empirical analysis for OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 179-201, March.
    7. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar, 2018. "Trade Liberalization-Trade Revenue Nexus: An Empirical Enquiry of Trade Laffer Curve of Pakistan," Sukkur IBA Journal of Management and Business, Sukkur IBA University, vol. 5(1), pages 66-84, Jan-June.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Hicks, Alexander M. & Swank, Duane H., 1992. "Politics, Institutions, and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies, 1960–82," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 658-674, September.
    10. Krueger, Anne O, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Georgios Karras, 2012. "Trade openness and the effectiveness of fiscal policy: some empirical evidence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 59(3), pages 303-313, September.
    12. Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali & Michael Yang, 2022. "The Effect Of Trade Liberalization On Expenditure Structure Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, March.
    13. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad, 2017. "Socio-Economic Development, Demographic Changes and Total Labor Productivity in Pakistan: A Co-Integrational and Decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 77538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Asif Sajid & Amjad Ali, 2018. "Inclusive Growth and Macroeconomic Situations in South Asia: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(3), pages 97-109, September.
    16. David N. Figlio & Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Local Communities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 11, pages 369-400, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Heinrich Ursprung, 2008. "The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 263-292, March.
    18. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Michael Moore & Maurizio Zanardi, 2011. "Does reduced trade tax revenue affect government spending patterns?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(5), pages 555-579, October.
    21. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    22. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    23. Ram, Rati, 2009. "Openness, country size, and government size: Additional evidence from a large cross-country panel," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 213-218, February.
    24. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Ahmad; K.; Chaudhary; A. R, 2016. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Tax Structure of Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 10(2), pages 39-55, Fall.
    27. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    28. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    29. Benarroch, Michael & Pandey, Manish, 2008. "Trade openness and government size," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 157-159, December.
    30. Audi, Marc & Ali, Amjad & Roussel, Yannick, 2021. "Measuring the Tax Buoyancy: Empirics from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)," MPRA Paper 109567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. M. Ali Kemal, 2003. "Underground Economy and Tax Evasion in Pakistan A Critical Evaluation," PIDE-Working Papers 2003:184, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    32. Alesina, Alberto & Wacziarg, Romain, 1998. "Openness, country size and government," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 305-321, September.
    33. Amjad Ali & Farooq Ahmed & Fazal- Ur- Rahman, 2016. "Impact of Government Borrowing on Financial Development (A case study of Pakistan)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, September.
    34. Sumera Arshad & Amajd Ali, 2016. "Trade-off between Inflation, Interest and Unemployment Rate of Pakistan: Revisited," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(4), pages 193-209, December.
    35. Robert R. Kaufman & Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2005. "Globalization, Domestic Politics and Social Spending in Latin," Public Economics 0504009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Khalil Ahmed & Muhammad Qasim & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2017. "Impact of Exchange Rate on Exports in Case of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 6(2), pages 98-102, June.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    38. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82496, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    39. Frank Balle & Ashish Vaidya, 2002. "A regional analysis of openness and government size," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 289-292.
    40. Bretschger, Lucas & Hettich, Frank, 2002. "Globalisation, capital mobility and tax competition: theory and evidence for OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 695-716, November.
    41. Khattry, Barsha & Mohan Rao, J., 2002. "Fiscal Faux Pas?: An Analysis of the Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1431-1444, August.
    42. Bruce Morley & Nicholas Perdikis, 2000. "Trade liberalisation, government expenditure and economic growth in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 38-54.
    43. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    44. Kittel, Bernhard & Winner, Hannes, 2002. "How reliable is pooled analysis in political economy? The globalization welfare state nexus revisited," MPIfG Discussion Paper 02/3, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    45. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    46. Sohrab Abizadeh, 2005. "An analysis of government expenditure and trade liberalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1881-1884.
    47. Ali, Amjad & Zulfiqar, Kalsoom, 2018. "An Assessment of Association between Natural Resources Agglomeration and Unemployment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Mahnaz Fatima & Qazi Masood Ahmed, 2001. "Political Economy of Fiscal Reforms in the 1990s," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 503-518.
    49. Adserà, Alícia & Boix, Carles, 2002. "Trade, Democracy, and the Size of the Public Sector: The Political Underpinnings of Openness," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 229-262, April.
    50. Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Aynul Hasan & Aisha Ghaus & Ajaz Rasheed, 1995. "Is the Social Action Programme in Pakistan Financially Sustainable?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 629-647.
    51. Muhammad Islam, 2004. "The long run relationship between openness and government size: evidence from bounds test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 995-1000.
    52. Edwards, Sebastian, 1992. "Trade orientation, distortions and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 31-57, July.
    53. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    54. Ahmad, Khalil & Mahmood, Haider, 2013. "Openness-Inflation Puzzle: Evidence from Pakistan," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(3), pages 69-78, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naima Mubeen & Dr. Muhammad Abdul Quddus, 2023. "Trade Horizons: A Comprehensive Study of Determinants Shaping Export Diversification in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(3), pages 446-458.
    2. Marc Audi & Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Amjad Ali & Razan Al-Masri, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 39-56, September.
    3. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2023. "Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-73, May.
    4. Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali & Michael Yang, 2022. "The Effect Of Trade Liberalization On Expenditure Structure Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, March.
    5. Anum Shafique & Mehmood Ul Hassan & Akmal Shahzad & Qazi Muhammad Ali & Muhammad Saqlain, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility And Its Relationship With Macroeconomic Variables In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 121-131, March.
    6. Alim, Wajid & Ali, Amjad & Minhas, Amna Shafiq, 2022. "The Impact of Leverage on the Firm Performance: A Case of Fertilizers Sector of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 114200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ismat Nasim & Mohamed Boukhris & Umar Nawaz Kayani & Farrukh Bashir & Syed Arslan Haider, 2023. "Exploring the Links between Renewable Energy, FDI, Environmental Degradation, and International Trade in Selected Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 418-429, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vikas Dixit, 2014. "Relation between Trade Openness, Capital Openness and Government Size in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 49(1), pages 1-29, February.
    2. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    3. Estela Sáenz & Marcela Sabaté & M. Gadea, 2013. "Trade openness and public expenditure. The Spanish case, 1960–2000," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 173-195, March.
    4. Ahmad; K.; Chaudhary; A. R, 2016. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Tax Structure of Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 10(2), pages 39-55, Fall.
    5. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2024. "Does onslaught of globalisation induce pro-efficient government expenditures in a large transitioning economy? Empirical evidence from India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-46, April.
    7. Gemmell, Norman & Kneller, Richard & Sanz, Ismael, 2008. "Foreign investment, international trade and the size and structure of public expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 151-171, March.
    8. Arzoo Mushtaq & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Hanif Akhtar, 2022. "Nonlinear Taylor Rule And Inflation-Targeting In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 185-197, June.
    9. Bismillah & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, 2022. "Trade Liberalization And Fiscal Stance In Selected Developing Countries: A Granger Causality Approach In Var Framework," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 134-159, June.
    10. McCloud, Nadine & Delgado, Michael S. & Holmes, Chanit'a, 2018. "Does a stronger system of law and order constrain the effects of foreign direct investment on government size?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 258-283.
    11. Estela Sáenz Rodríguez & Marcela Sabaté Sort & Mª. Dolores Gadea Rivas, 2011. "¿Condiciona la apertura exterior el tamaño del sector público? Un panorama," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 198(3), pages 131-149, September.
    12. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    13. M� Dolores Gadea Rivas & Marcela Sabat� Sort & Estela S�enz Rodr�guez, 2009. "The relationship between trade openness and public expenditure. The spanish case, 1960-2000," Documentos de Trabajo dt2009-06, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    14. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kevin Williams, 2021. "Does national income mediate the relationship between trade and government size?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3029-3057, December.
    16. Muhammad Zakaria & Samreen Shakoor, 2011. "Relationship Between Government Size and Trade Openness: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 328-341, December.
    17. Yannick Roussel & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2021. "Measuring The Money Demand In Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(1), pages 27-41, March.
    18. Benarroch, Michael & Pandey, Manish, 2012. "The relationship between trade openness and government size: Does disaggregating government expenditure matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 239-252.
    19. Marc Audi & Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Amjad Ali & Razan Al-Masri, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 39-56, September.
    20. Hassan Ajmal & Amna Khalid, 2021. "Causality Ardl Analysis Of Economic Expansion Foreign Direct Investment And Exports: A Case Study Of The Countries (Mint)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(2), pages 67-75, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Average Tariff rate; Trade Tax Revenue; Expenditure Structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.