IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/87529.html

Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad, Khalil
  • Ali, Safdar
  • Ali, Amjad

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the effect of free trade on trade tax revenue in case of Pakistan during 1972-2014. For time series analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model has been used for examining the long run co-integration among the variables and Vector Error-Correction model is used for short run dynamics of the variables. The empirical results show that quantitative trade restriction is positively linked with trade tax revenue. On the basis of empirical findings, this study suggests that trade liberalization has negative impact on trade tax revenue. We improve the volume of average tariff rate; it may cause to increase the trade tax revenue for Pakistan in both short run and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87529/1/MPRA_paper_87529.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 1996. "A New Approach to Evaluating Trade Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(1), pages 107-125.
    2. repec:bla:ecopol:v:17:y:2005:i::p:129-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Stotsky, Janet & WoldeMariam, Asegedech, 2006. "Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 261-284, April.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2009. "Globalisation and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 653-671.
    6. Adelaide Matlanyane & C Harmse, 2002. "Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(2), pages 155-161, March.
    7. Amos Peters, 2005. "The Fiscal Effects of Tariff Reduction in the Caribbean Community," Public Economics 0511018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Vito Tanzi, 1989. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Level of Taxation and the Fiscal Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 633-656, September.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    11. Khattry, Barsha & Mohan Rao, J., 2002. "Fiscal Faux Pas?: An Analysis of the Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1431-1444, August.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Keiko Kubota, 2005. "Fiscal Constraints, Collection Costs, And Trade Policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 129-150, March.
    14. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    15. repec:qeh:qehwps:qehwps35 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    17. Muhammad Wasif Siddiqi & Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2014. "Import Demand, Economic Development and Trade Liberalization in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 3(2), pages 131-141, June.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    19. Epaphra, Manamba, 2014. "The Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 62330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    20. James R. Melvin, 1970. "Commodity Taxation as a Determinant of Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 62-78, February.
    21. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
    23. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    24. Hisali, Eria, 2012. "Trade policy reform and international trade tax revenue in Uganda," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2144-2154.
    25. Spearot, Alan C., 2013. "Variable demand elasticities and tariff liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 26-41.
    26. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    27. Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2005. "Impact of Changes in Tariffs on Developing Countries' Government Revenue," OECD Trade Policy Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
    28. Mr. Reint Gropp & Mr. Liam P. Ebrill & Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky, 1999. "Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/007, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    30. Ahmed Gulzar & Novaira Junaid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "What is Hidden in the Hidden Economy of Pakistan? Size, Causes, Issues, and Implications," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 665-704.
    31. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    32. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 2004. "In Defense of Globalization: It Has a Human Face," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 9-20, November-.
    33. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L. & Chambas, Gerard, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 173-213, February.
    34. Abhijit Sen Gupta, 2007. "Determinants of Tax Revenue Efforts in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/184, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Mr. David Bevan, 1995. "Fiscal Implications of Trade Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 1995/050, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dilshad Ahmad & Bilal Sarwar & Kiran Sarwar & Bilal Tariq, 2022. "Government revenue and Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence of Pakistan," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 246-252, December.
    2. Hassan Ajmal & Amna Khalid, 2021. "Causality Ardl Analysis Of Economic Expansion Foreign Direct Investment And Exports: A Case Study Of The Countries (Mint)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 10(2), pages 67-75, June.
    3. Noman Ahmad & Alam Khan & Ihtisham ul Haq & Muhammad Hasnain Khalid & Seemab Ahmad, 2024. "The Impact of Terrorism on International Trade: A Panel Study for SAARC Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 671-676.
    4. Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali & Michael Yang, 2022. "The Effect Of Trade Liberalization On Expenditure Structure Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, March.
    5. Naima Mubeen & Dr. Muhammad Abdul Quddus, 2023. "Trade Horizons: A Comprehensive Study of Determinants Shaping Export Diversification in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(3), pages 446-458.
    6. Fahim Javed & Nargis Akhtar & Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2023. "Social Anxiety, Self-efficacy and Academic Achievement in Matric Students of Lahore Pakistan," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 28-37, March.
    7. Muhammad Mudassar Shahid & Waleed Khalid, 2024. "Unscrambling the Digital Dilemma: Navigating Techno-Stress in Pakistan's Banking Realm - A Journey into the Interplay of Thoughts, Emotions, and Commitments," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 825-837.
    8. Rabia Saghir & Saiqa Saddiqa Qureshi & Hina Hayat, 2022. "Internationalization Of Relationship Between Inflation And Money Supply Policies: An Empirical Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 234-239.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khalil Ahmad & Amjad Ali & Michael Yang, 2022. "The Effect Of Trade Liberalization On Expenditure Structure Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 73-84, March.
    2. Ali, Amjad & Ur Rehman, Hafeez, 2015. "Macroeconomic Instability and Its Impact on Gross Domestic Product: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 71037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    4. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Manamba Epaphra & Lucas E. Kaaya, 2020. "Tax Revenue Effect of Sectoral Growth and Public Expenditure in Tanzania: An application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 15(3), pages 81-120, September.
    6. Mohammad Karimi & Shivee Ranjanee Kaliappan & Normaz Wana Ismail & Hanny Zurina Binti Hamzah, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization Affects International Trade Tax Revenue? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Threshold Method," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 75-87.
    7. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Saad Alshehry, 2015. "Sustainable Energy Development in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    9. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Imtiaz, Amir & Javid, Snober, 2023. "Resource curse or blessings hypothesis in Pakistan: The role of financial development and oil prices in era of globalization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    12. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2010. "Does financial development increase rural-urban income inequality? Cointegration analysis in the case of Indian economy," MPRA Paper 27093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Garg, Reetika & Dua, Pami, 2014. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    14. Chor Foon Tang & Eu Chye Tan, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 33(4), pages 22-48, October.
    15. Taha, Roshaiza & Colombage, Sisira R.N. & Maslyuk, Svetlana & Nanthakumar, Loganathan, 2013. "Does financial system activity affect tax revenue in Malaysia? Bounds testing and causality approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 147-157.
    16. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    17. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    18. Tariq Hussain & Ahmad Raza Ul Mustafa & Makhdum M.I. & Kaleem Ullah, 2022. "Defense Expenditures, Fiscal Deficit And Debt Servicing Nexus: A Case Study Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 74-83, June.
    19. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
    20. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Aggregate Import Demand Function for Japan: A Cointegration Re-investigation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 363-377.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87529. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.