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The Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Tanzania

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  • Epaphra, Manamba

Abstract

This paper examines the argument that trade liberalization depresses the import duty revenue, and consequently adversely affects the total tax revenue. The study is thought to be significant because Tanzania experiences difficulty in replacing import duty revenue loss as a consequence of trade reform by strengthening its consumption tax system. In the course of analysis, cointegration analysis and error correction modelling are employed over the 1979/80-2009/10 period. The empirical results show that import duty revenue-to-GDP ratio is positively related to tariff rates, implying that a reduction in the tariff rates results in a significant loss of import duty revenue. The results also show that the removal of protectionist policies led to an increase in import-to-GDP ratio which in turn led to rising shares of import duty revenue in GDP. Finally, the results generate some policy implications. The proper issue in tax design under trade liberalization, Tanzania needs to strengthen the domestic tax system and raise tax revenue without increasing tax rates by reinforcing tax and customs administrations so as to maintain fiscal stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Epaphra, Manamba, 2014. "The Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 62330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62330
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62330/1/MPRA_paper_62330.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keiko Kubota, 2005. "Fiscal Constraints, Collection Costs, And Trade Policies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17, pages 129-150, March.
    2. Dani Rodrik, 1995. "Trade Strategy, Investment, and Exports: Another Look at East Asia," NBER Working Papers 5339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Agbeyegbe, Terence D. & Stotsky, Janet & WoldeMariam, Asegedech, 2006. "Trade liberalization, exchange rate changes, and tax revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 261-284, April.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Reint Gropp & Liam P. Ebrill & Janet Gale Stotsky, 1999. "Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 180, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Vito Tanzi, 1989. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Level of Taxation and the Fiscal Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 633-656, September.
    7. McLaren, John, 1998. "Black Markets and Optimal Evadable Taxation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 665-679, May.
    8. Pritchett, Lant & Sethi, Geeta, 1994. "Tariff Rates, Tariff Revenue, and Tariff Reform: Some New Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Government of the United Republic of Tanzania & World Bank, 2002. "Tanzania at the Turn of the Century : Background Papers and Statistics," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14054.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    12. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Khalil & Ali, Safdar & Ali, Amjad, 2018. "Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 87529, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Import Duty Revenue; Trade Liberalization;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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