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An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited

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  • Audi, Marc
  • Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad
  • Ali, Amjad
  • Al-Masri, Razan

Abstract

This study examines the impact of political events on the Pakistan Stock Exchange with the help of larger data set, the stock market of Pakistan which is considered the top-performing market in the region has suffered as well as foreign investors are reluctant to invest in Pakistan stock markets due to uncertainty caused by political instability. Pakistan is struggling against many problems; political instability is a significant problem due to which the economic growth of the country is being hindered and the confidence of the investors has been shaken. A total of 66 political events were considered in the study out of which 33 events were coded as positive and the other 33 were deemed negative. The first-day abnormal return, five-day cumulative abnormal return, and ten-day cumulative return were calculated for all of the events. The political events were analyzed by segregating these into Pre-Musharraf, Musharraf, and Post-Musharraf eras and also on the bases of their category. This study finds evidence that political events affect the Pakistan Stock Exchange, but their impact is different considering the economic and political implications of these events. Certain events had a stronger impact on the stock market like the takeover of Musharraf, suspension of the chief justice, and assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Political events provided more consistent results where elections yield positive stock returns and the selection of prime minister yields negative stock returns after elections. Overall, this study lays the foundation to make further explorations into the phenomenon of uncertainty caused by political events in relevance to stock markets in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Audi, Marc & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad & Al-Masri, Razan, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," MPRA Paper 114227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114227
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    5. Marc Audi & Fiaz Ahmad Sulehri & Amjad Ali & Razan Al-Masri, 2022. "An Event Based Analysis of Stock Return and Political Uncertainty in Pakistan: Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 39-56, September.
    6. Audi, Marc & Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad & Al-Masri, Razan, 2022. "The role of terrorist events in determining stock returns in Pakistan: covering most vibrant era 2003-2013," MPRA Paper 115167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2022.
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    Keywords

    Stock Return; Political instability;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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