IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/33674.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Risk Sensitivity of Global Liquidity Flows: Heterogeneity, Evolution and Drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Avdjiev
  • Leonardo Gambacorta
  • Linda S. Goldberg
  • Stefano Schiaffi

Abstract

The period after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was characterized by a considerable risk migration within global liquidity flows, away from cross-border bank lending towards international bond issuance. We show that the post-GFC shifts in the risk sensitivities of global liquidity flows are related to the tightness of the balance sheet (capital and leverage) constraints faced by international (bank and non-bank) lenders and to the migration of borrowers across funding sources. We document that the risk sensitivity of global liquidity flows is higher when funding is provided by financial intermediaries that are facing greater balance sheet constraints. We also provide evidence that the post-GFC migration of borrowers from cross-border loans to international debt securities was associated with a decline in the risk sensitivity of global liquidity flows to EME borrowers.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Avdjiev & Leonardo Gambacorta & Linda S. Goldberg & Stefano Schiaffi, 2025. "The Risk Sensitivity of Global Liquidity Flows: Heterogeneity, Evolution and Drivers," NBER Working Papers 33674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33674
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w33674.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wbk:wbrwps:10258 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Diamond, William F. & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Risk-free interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 1-29.
    5. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    6. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    7. Jushan Bai, 1994. "Least Squares Estimation Of A Shift In Linear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 453-472, September.
    8. Enisse Kharroubi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Monetary independence in a financially integrated world: what do measures of interest rate co-movement tell us?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 193-205, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    10. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    12. Rustom M Irani & Rajkamal Iyer & Ralf R Meisenzahl & José-Luis Peydró, 2021. "The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation [Securities trading by banks and credit supply: Micro-evidence from the crisis]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2181-2235.
    13. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    14. Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 1-31, March.
    15. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2023. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3423-3462.
    16. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2023. "Regulatory arbitrage and loan location decisions by multinational banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    18. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    19. Stefan Nagel, 2016. "The Liquidity Premium of Near-Money Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1927-1971.
    20. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    21. José Cristi & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mariana Sans & Filiz Unsal, 2024. "Global Spillovers from Fed Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 114, pages 157-162, May.
    22. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    23. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    24. Elliott, David & Meisenzahl, Ralf R. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    25. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    26. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Taper Tantrums: Quantitative Easing, Its Aftermath, and Emerging Market Capital Flows [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1445-1508.
    27. Benjamin H. Cohen & Dietrich Domanski & Ingo Fender & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Liquidity: A Selective Review," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 587-612, September.
    28. Benjamin Nelson & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 198-211, March.
    29. Kaiji Chen & Jue Ren & Tao Zha, 2018. "The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3891-3936, December.
    30. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2012. "Emerging Local Currency Bond Markets," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(4), pages 73-93, July.
    31. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad, 2022. "Global Fund Flows and Emerging Market Tail Risk," NBER Working Papers 30577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    33. Robin Koepke, 2019. "What Drives Capital Flows To Emerging Markets? A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 516-540, April.
    34. Inaki Aldasoro & Torsten Ehlers, 2018. "Global liquidity: changing instrument and currency patterns," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    35. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    36. José Cristi & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mariana Sans & Filiz D. Unsal, 2024. "Global Spillovers from FED Hikes and a Strong Dollar: The Risk Channel," NBER Working Papers 32330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Bryan Hardy & Goetz von Peter, 2023. "Global liquidity: a new phase?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    38. Gaston Gelos & Pietro Patelli & Ilhyock Shim, 2024. "The US dollar and capital flows to EMEs," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elliott, David & Meisenzahl, Ralf R. & Peydró, José-Luis, 2024. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: Evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2020. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Linda S. Goldberg, 2024. "Global Liquidity: Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    5. Leonardo Gambacorta & Adrian van Rixtel & Stefano Schiaffi, 2019. "Changing Business Models In International Bank Funding," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1038-1055, April.
    6. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.
    7. Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Haas, Adam, 2021. "In search of distress risk in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    10. Nathan Converse & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Tomas Williams, 2023. "How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(9), pages 3423-3462.
    11. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.
    13. Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yesin, 2023. "The kindness of strangers: Brexit and bilateral financial linkages," Working Papers 2023-02, Swiss National Bank.
    14. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Sergio Florez-Orrego, 2021. "Money Matters: Global banks, safe assets and monetary autonomy," Documentos CEDE 19153, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    16. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66.
    17. Pami Dua & Neha Verma, 2024. "Dynamics of Capital Flows and Global Factors: Case of Emerging Economies," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(4), pages 945-975, December.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    19. Swapan-Kumar Pradhan & Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2024. "How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 1226, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Chen, Yang & Feng, Yun & Liu, Qing & Zhang, Zhipeng, 2025. "Does benchmark-driven investment amplify the impact of the global financial cycle on emerging markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.