IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26610.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mary Amiti
  • Stephen J. Redding
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

Using data from 2018, a number of studies have found that recent U.S tariffs have been passed on entirely to U.S. importers and consumers. These results are surprising given that trade theory has long stressed that tariffs applied by a large country should drive down foreign prices. Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff passthrough was complete.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2020. "Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective," NBER Working Papers 26610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26610
    Note: ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26610.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    5. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2019. "International Shocks, Variable Markups, and Domestic Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(6), pages 2356-2402.
    6. Aaron B. Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2019. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U.S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," NBER Working Papers 25767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2021. "Trade policy and firm performance: introduction to the special section," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 1-6, April.
    2. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2019. "Exchange rates and consumer prices: evidence from Brexit," CEP Discussion Papers dp1667, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Davin Chor, 2019. "Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?," NBER Working Papers 26434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nagengast, Arne J. & Bursian, Dirk & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Dynamic pricing and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from transaction-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Jaravel, Xavier & Sager, Erick, 2019. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Facundo Albornoz & Emanuel Ornelas & Irene Brambilla, 2020. "The Impact of Tariff Hikes on Firm Exports," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4316, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Natalie Chen & Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs," IMF Working Papers 2020/036, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2019. "Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 446, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Eike Berner & Laura Birg & Dominik Boddin, 2017. "Retailers and Consumers: The Pass-through of Import Price Changes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1314-1344, July.
    11. Chen, Natalie & Chung, Wanyu & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Casas, Camila, 2020. "Industry heterogeneity and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Ariu, Andrea & Mayneris, Florian & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "One way to the top: How services boost the demand for goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Tscheke, Jan, 2016. "Operational Hedging of Exchange Rate Risks," Discussion Papers in Economics 30227, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    15. Raphael A. Auer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through, Domestic Competition, and Inflation: Evidence from the 2005–08 Revaluation of the Renminbi," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1617-1650, December.
    16. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions:," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    17. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    18. Mauro Caselli & Arpita Chatterjee & Alan Woodland, 2017. "Multi-product exporters, variable markups and exchange rate fluctuations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1130-1160, November.
    19. Cao, Shutao & Dong, Wei & Tomlin, Ben, 2015. "Pricing-to-market, currency invoicing and exchange rate pass-through to producer prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 128-149.
    20. Huang, Xiaobing, 2017. "Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: Evidence from China," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.