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Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mary Amiti
  • Stephen J. Redding
  • David E. Weinstein

Abstract

Using another year of data including significant escalations in the trade war, we find that the costs of the US tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by US firms and consumers. We show that the response of import values to the tariffs increases in absolute magnitude over time, consistent with the idea that it takes time for firms to reorganize supply chains. We find heterogeneity in the responses of some sectors, such as steel, where tariffs have caused foreign exporters to drop their prices substantially, enabling them to export relatively more than in sectors where tariff pass-through was complete.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2020. "Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 541-546, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:541-46
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Zhang, D. James & Dabadghao, Shaunak S. & Udenio, Maximiliano, 2025. "Global sourcing under tariffs: A perspective of time series analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:345095 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    5. Kruse-Andersen, Peter K., 2023. "Climate policy in the shadow of national security," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Stefano Schiavo, 2021. "Trade policy and firm performance: introduction to the special section," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 1-6, April.
    7. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Sudsawasd, Sasatra, 2025. "Impacts of trade diversion from China in the United States market on wages in a third country: Evidence from Thailand," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    8. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2021. "The effect of the US–China trade war on Chinese new firm entry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Ivan, Deseatnicov, 2022. "The impact of the U.S.-China conflict and the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports," IDE Discussion Papers 852, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Yang, Ting, 2025. "Volatility characteristics of stock markets during the US-China trade war," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Hong Ma & Lingsheng Meng, 2023. "Heterogeneous impacts of the Section 301 tariffs: Evidence from the revision of product lists," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 164-190, February.
    12. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Kanglin Chen & Xin Wang & Baozhuang Niu & Ying‐Ju Chen, 2022. "The impact of tariffs and price premiums of locally manufactured products on global manufacturers' sourcing strategies," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3474-3490, September.
    14. Sheldon, Ian & Chow, Daniel C.K., 2024. "The Future of Dispute Resolution in International (Agricultural) Trade," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 345095, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2022. "The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Hanappi, Tibor & Jakubik, Adam & Ruta, Michele, 2024. "Fiscal revenue mobilization and digitally traded products: Taxing at the border or behind it?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 779-801.
    17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    18. Cheng, Sirui & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Qingfeng, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm resilience in China: Evidence from the Sino-US trade war," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Benguria, Felipe & Saffie, Felipe, 2024. "Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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