IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/termod/201903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Upward pressure on wages and the interregional trade spillover effects under demand-side shocks

Author

Abstract

The paper illustrates the effect of a permanent demand-side shock in the perturbed regions and the associated spillover effects in the non-perturbed regions using the RHOMOLO spatial-numerical general equilibrium model of the EU economy. We test to what extent gradual upward pressure on wages generated by a domestic increase in demand alters the magnitude of the economic impacts in the long-run and the degree to which this could result in changes in trade patterns. We also assess the size and the direction of the effects with varying trade substitution elasticities and under both perfectly and imperfectly competitive product markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Lecca & Martin Christensen & Andrea Conte & Giovanni Mandras & Simone Salotti, 2019. "Upward pressure on wages and the interregional trade spillover effects under demand-side shocks," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:201903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC116050
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    2. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2015. "Elasticity Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 43-83, July.
    3. Andr�s Rodr�guez-Pose & Enrique Garcilazo, 2015. "Quality of Government and the Returns of Investment: Examining the Impact of Cohesion Expenditure in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1274-1290, August.
    4. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    5. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cataldo & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "Government Quality And The Economic Returns Of Transport Infrastructure Investment In European Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 555-582, September.
    6. Fabrizio Barca & Philip McCann & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2012. "The Case For Regional Development Intervention: Place‐Based Versus Place‐Neutral Approaches," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 134-152, February.
    7. Patrick Kline & Enrico Moretti, 2013. "Place Based Policies with Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 238-243, May.
    8. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    9. Attila Varga, 2017. "Place-based, Spatially Blind, or Both? Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Modern Development Policies," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(1), pages 12-37, January.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    11. Enrico Moretti, 2014. "Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 275-331.
    12. Patrizio Lecca & Javier Barbero Jimenez & Martin Aaroe Christensen & Andrea Conte & Francesco Di Comite & Jorge Diaz-Lanchas & Olga Diukanova & Giovanni Mandras & Damiaan Persyn & Stylianos Sakkas, 2018. "RHOMOLO V3:A Spatial Modelling Framework," JRC Research Reports JRC111861, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Andres RodrIguez-Pose & Ugo Fratesi†, 2004. "Between Development and Social Policies: The Impact of European Structural Funds in Objective 1 Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 97-113.
    14. Guido Pellegrini & Flavia Terribile & Ornella Tarola & Teo Muccigrosso & Federica Busillo, 2013. "Measuring the effects of European Regional Policy on economic growth: A regression discontinuity approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(1), pages 217-233, March.
    15. Jan in 't Veld & Janos Varga, 2010. "The Potential Impact of EU Cohesion Policy Spending in the 2007-13 Programming Period: A Model-Based," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 422, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Peter McGregor & Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Innovations in Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1307-1310.
    17. Robert C. Feenstra & Philip Luck & Maurice Obstfeld & Katheryn N. Russ, 2018. "In Search of the Armington Elasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 135-150, March.
    18. Matias Busso & Jesse Gregory & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Assessing the Incidence and Efficiency of a Prominent Place Based Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 897-947, April.
    19. Patrizio Lecca & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2014. "Balanced Budget Multipliers For Small Open Regions Within A Federal System: Evidence From The Scottish Variable Rate Of Income Tax," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 402-421, June.
    20. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Freire-Serén, María Jesús & Manzano, Baltasar, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects of the regional allocation of public capital formation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 563-574, September.
    21. Sapir, Andre & Aghion, Philippe & Bertola, Giuseppe & Hellwig, Martin & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Rosati, Dariusz & Vinals, Jose & Wallace, Helen, 2004. "An Agenda for a Growing Europe: The Sapir Report," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199271498, Decembrie.
    22. Sandy Dall'Erba & Fang Fang, 2017. "Meta-analysis of the impact of European Union Structural Funds on regional growth," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 822-832, June.
    23. Riccardo regstdcenzi, 2009. "Undermining the Principle of Concentration? European Union Regional Policy and the Socio-economic Disadvantage of European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 111-133.
    24. Mark Thissen & Olga Ivanova & Giovanni Mandras & Trond Husby, 2019. "European NUTS 2 regions: construction of interregional trade-linked Supply and Use tables with consistent transport flows," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2019-01, Joint Research Centre.
    25. Edward J. Balistreri & Ayed Al-Qahtani & Carol A. Dahl, 2010. "Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 167-180.
    26. Damiaan Persyn & Jorge Diaz-Lanchas & Javier Barbero, 2019. "Estimating road transport costs between EU regions," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2019-04, Joint Research Centre.
    27. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-652, Part II, .
    28. Francesco Di Comite & Patrizio Lecca & Philippe Monfort & Damiaan Persyn & Violeta Piculescu, 2018. "The impact of Cohesion Policy 2007-2015 in EU regions: Simulations with the RHOMOLO Interregional Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2018-03, Joint Research Centre.
    29. Oliver Picek & Enno Schröder, 2018. "Spillover effects of Germany's final demand on Southern Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(8), pages 2216-2242, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Ángel Almazán‐Gómez & Carlos Llano & Julián Pérez & Daniel Rauhut, 2024. "Socioeconomic impacts of Russian invasion of Ukraine: A multiregional assessment for Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 333-354, March.
    2. Casas, Pablo & Christou, Tryfonas & Ferreira, Valeria & García Rodríguez, Abián & Lazarou, Nicholas Joseph & Pedauga, Luis Enrique & Rueda Cantuche, José Manuel & Bernard, Hannah & Volpe, Roberto & Ne, 2025. "The RHOMOLO and FIDELIO interim evaluation of the impact of Horizon Europe," MPRA Paper 124687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barbero, Javier & Diukanova, Olga & Gianelle, Carlo & Salotti, Simone & Santoalha, Artur, 2024. "Technologically related diversification: One size does not fit all European regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    4. Javier Barberoa & Olga Diukanovaa & Carlo Gianellea & Simone Salottia & Artur Santoalha, 2020. "Economic modelling to evaluate Smart Specialisation: an analysis on research and innovation targets in Southern Europe," Working Papers on Innovation Studies 20200525, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    5. Lecca, Patrizio & Persyn, Damiaan & Sakkas, Stelios, 2023. "Capital-skill complementarity and regional inequality: A spatial general equilibrium analysis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Javier Barbero & Olga Diukanova & Carlo Gianelle & Simone Salotti & Artur Santoalha, 2022. "Economic modelling to evaluate Smart Specialisation: an analysis of research and innovation targets in Southern Europe," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1496-1509, September.
    7. Crucitti, Francesca & Lazarou, Nicholas-Joseph & Monfort, Philippe & Salotti, Simone, 2023. "Where does the EU cohesion policy produce its benefits? A model analysis of the international spillovers generated by the policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).
    8. Filippo Di Pietro & Patrizio Lecca & Simone Salotti, 2021. "Regional economic resilience in the European Union: a numerical general equilibrium analysis," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312, July.
    9. Patrizio Lecca & Simone Salotti & Andrea Conte, 2020. "The importance of studying inter-regional spillover effects of European policies: application of the RHOMOLO model for Poland," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2020-04, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Carlo Gianelle & Fabrizio Guzzo & Javier Barbero & Simone Salotti, 2022. "The economic implications of Smart Specialisation governance: a general equilibrium analysis for Italy 2014-2020," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2022-05, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Casas, Pablo & Christou, Tryfonas & García Rodríguez, Abián & Heidelk, Tillmann & Lazarou, Nicholas Joseph & Monfort, Philippe & Salotti, Simone, 2024. "The updated RHOMOLO impact assessment of the 2014-2020 European cohesion policy (including REACT-EU)," MPRA Paper 122873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christensen, Martin & Weiers, Georg & Wolski, Marcin, 2019. "The 2019 assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the European Fund for Strategic Investments with the RHOMOLO-EIB model," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 45, pages 5-15.
    13. Mattia Cai, 2021. "Doubly constrained gravity models for interregional trade estimation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 455-474, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panagiotis KOUDOUMAKIS & George BOTZORIS & Angelos PROTOPAPAS, 2021. "The Contribution Of Cohesion Policy To The Development And Convergence Of The Regions Of The European Union," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 277-290, June.
    2. Patrizio Lecca & Javier Barbero Jimenez & Martin Aaroe Christensen & Andrea Conte & Francesco Di Comite & Jorge Diaz-Lanchas & Olga Diukanova & Giovanni Mandras & Damiaan Persyn & Stylianos Sakkas, 2018. "RHOMOLO V3:A Spatial Modelling Framework," JRC Research Reports JRC111861, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2018. "Local policy effects at a time of economic crisis," MPRA Paper 85621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Javier Barbero & Martin Christensen & Andrea Conte & Patrizio Lecca & Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Simone Salotti, 2023. "Improving Government Quality in the Regions of the EU and its System‐Wide Benefits for Cohesion Policy," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 38-57, January.
    5. Casas, Pablo & Christou, Tryfonas & García Rodríguez, Abián & Heidelk, Tillmann & Lazarou, Nicholas Joseph & Monfort, Philippe & Salotti, Simone, 2024. "The updated RHOMOLO impact assessment of the 2014-2020 European cohesion policy (including REACT-EU)," MPRA Paper 122873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Giuseppe Albanese & Guido de Blasio & Andrea Locatelli, 2021. "Does EU regional policy promote local TFP growth? Evidence from the Italian Mezzogiorno," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 327-348, April.
    7. Wanda Biedka & Mikołaj Herbst & Jakub Rok & Piotr Wójcik, 2022. "The local‐level impact of human capital investment within the EU cohesion policy in Poland," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(2), pages 303-325, April.
    8. Filip Hruza & Stanislav Volcík & Jan Žácek, 2019. "The Impact of EU Funds on Regional Economic Growth of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 76-94, February.
    9. Marco Di Cataldo, 2016. "Gaining and losing EU Objective 1 funds: Regional development in Britain and the prospect of Brexit," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 120, European Institute, LSE.
    10. Augusto Cerqua & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "I will survive! The impact of place-based policies when public transfers fade out," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(8), pages 1605-1618, August.
    11. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Bartalucci, Federico & Lozano-Gracia, Nancy & Dávalos, María, 2024. "Overcoming left-behindedness. Moving beyond the efficiency versus equity debate in territorial development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125629, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, 2020. "Institutions and the fortunes of territories," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 371-386, June.
    13. Bachtrögler-Unger, Julia & Dolls, Mathias & Krolage, Carla & Schüle, Paul & Taubenböck, Hannes & Weigand, Matthias, 2023. "EU cohesion policy on the ground: Analyzing small-scale effects using satellite data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Carlos San Juan Mesonada & Carlos Sunyer Manteiga, 2021. "European Structural Funds and Resilient and Recovery Facility Governance," EconPol Working Paper 67, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Carlos San Juan Mesonada & Carlos Sunyer Manteiga, 2020. "European Structural and Investment Funds and Regional Convergence: The Impact of Public Deficit in Beta-Convergence," EconPol Working Paper 47, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Lewis Dijkstra, 2021. "Does Cohesion Policy reduce EU discontent and Euroscepticism?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 354-369, February.
    17. Cerciello, Massimiliano & Agovino, Massimiliano & Garofalo, Antonio, 2019. "The caring hand that cripples? The effects of the European regional policy on local labour market participation in Southern Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Riccardo Crescenzi & Mara Giua, 2018. "One or Many Cohesion Policies of the European Union? On the Diverging Impacts of Cohesion Policy across Member States," SERC Discussion Papers 0230, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Julia Bachtrögler & Christoph Hammer & Wolf Heinrich Reuter & Florian Schwendinger, 2019. "Guide to the galaxy of EU regional funds recipients: evidence from new data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 103-150, February.
    20. Barone, Guglielmo & David, Francesco & de Blasio, Guido, 2016. "Boulevard of broken dreams. The end of EU funding (1997: Abruzzi, Italy)," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 31-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rhomolo; region; growth; regional development policies; Regional policy spillovers; spatial general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:201903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.