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The RHOMOLO and FIDELIO interim evaluation of the impact of Horizon Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo CASAS

    (European Commission)

  • Tryfonas CHRISTOU

    (European Commission)

  • Valeria FERREIRA

    (European Commission)

  • Abián GARCIA RODRIGUEZ

    (European Commission)

  • Nicholas LAZAROU

    (European Commission)

  • Luis PEDAUGA

    (European Commission)

  • José Manuel RUEDA-CANTUCHE

    (European Commission)

  • Hannah BERNARD

    (European Commission)

  • Roberto VOLPE

    (European Commission)

  • Daniel NEICU

    (European Commission)

  • Simone SALOTTI

    (European Commission)

Abstract

This paper presents a macroeconomic evaluation of the impact of the Horizon Europe Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, for which projects have been signed between 2021 and 1 July 2024, using the general equilibrium models RHOMOLO (Regional Holistic Model) and FIDELIO (Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output). The RHOMOLO model simulations suggest that the GDP gains in 2024 for the European Union would be up to 0.10% compared to GDP in 2020. The GDP gains are also expected to be significant in the medium term, with a cumulative GDP multiplier of more than 4, ten years after the end of the injection. The impact then gradually diminishes due to the obsolescence of the new knowledge and innovations generated by the policy intervention. The model results also show significant interregional spillovers in some, but not all, countries of the European Union. The FIDELIO model is used to disaggregate the impact of Horizon Europe funds on EU R&D expenditure and by sector, complementing the analysis of the RHOMOLO model. The results indicate that the positive effects on innovation gains, with business investment contributing to substantial GDP gains after the four-year intervention period, are mainly directed towards business R&D in manufacturing. Within manufacturing, the most important sub-sectors are the manufacture of machinery and equipment; computer, electronic and optical products; motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; and fabricated metal products.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo CASAS & Tryfonas CHRISTOU & Valeria FERREIRA & Abián GARCIA RODRIGUEZ & Nicholas LAZAROU & Luis PEDAUGA & José Manuel RUEDA-CANTUCHE & Hannah BERNARD & Roberto VOLPE & Daniel NEICU & Simone SALO, 2025. "The RHOMOLO and FIDELIO interim evaluation of the impact of Horizon Europe," EU research an innovation paper series KI-01-25-112-EN-N, Directorate General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) of the European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:eug:wpaper:ki-01-25-112-en-n
    DOI: 10.2777/4058193
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    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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