IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ifs/ifsewp/21-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Subjective expectations and demand for contraception

Author

Listed:
  • Grant Miller

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Áureo de Paula

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

  • Christine Valente

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Bristol)

Abstract

One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a within-subject experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Miller & Áureo de Paula & Christine Valente, 2021. "Subjective expectations and demand for contraception," IFS Working Papers W21/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifs.org.uk/uploads/WP202123-Subjective-expectations-and-demand-for-contraception.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Susan Athey & Katy Ann Bergstrom & Vitor Hadad & Julian C. Jamison & Berk Özler & Luca Parisotto & Julius Dohbit Sama, 2021. "Shared Decision-Making: Can Improved Counseling Increase Willingness to Pay for Modern Contraceptives?," Discussion Papers 2105, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    3. Bennear, Lori & Tarozzi, Alessandro & Pfaff, Alexander & Balasubramanya, Soumya & Matin Ahmed, Kazi & van Geen, Alexander, 2013. "Impact of a randomized controlled trial in arsenic risk communication on household water-source choices in Bangladesh," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 225-240.
    4. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
    5. Grant Miller & Kimberly Singer Babiarz, 2016. "Family Planning Program Effects: Evidence from Microdata," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(1), pages 7-26, March.
    6. Ainsworth, Martha & Beegle, Kathleen & Nyamete, Andrew, 1996. "The Impact of Women's Schooling on Fertility and Contraceptive Use: A Study of Fourteen Sub-Saharan African Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 85-122, January.
    7. Mummolo, Jonathan & Peterson, Erik, 2019. "Demand Effects in Survey Experiments: An Empirical Assessment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 517-529, May.
    8. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd R. Stinebrickner, 2014. "A Major in Science? Initial Beliefs and Final Outcomes for College Major and Dropout," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 426-472.
    9. Esther Duflo & Rema Hanna & Stephen P. Ryan, 2012. "Incentives Work: Getting Teachers to Come to School," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1241-1278, June.
    10. Stephenson, R. & Baschieri, A. & Clements, S. & Hennink, M. & Madise, N., 2007. "Contextual influences on modern contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(7), pages 1233-1240.
    11. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2012. "On the Use of Expectations Data in Estimating Structural Dynamic Choice Models," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 521-554.
    12. Cardell, N. Scott, 1997. "Variance Components Structures for the Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 185-213, April.
    13. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    14. Neily Zakiyah & Antoinette D I van Asselt & Frank Roijmans & Maarten J Postma, 2016. "Economic Evaluation of Family Planning Interventions in Low and Middle Income Countries; A Systematic Review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(12), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Pill, Patch, Or Shot? Subjective Expectations And Birth Control Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 999-1042, August.
    16. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Determinants of College Major Choice: Identification using an Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 791-824.
    17. Grant Miller and Kimberly Singer Babiarz, 2016. "Family Planning Program Effects: A Review of Evidence from Microdata - Working Paper 422," Working Papers 422, Center for Global Development.
    18. van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
    19. Cassidy, Rachel & Groot Bruinderink, Marije & Janssens, Wendy & Morsink, Karlijn, 2021. "The power to protect: Household bargaining and female condom use," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    20. Pascaline Dupas, 2011. "Health Behavior in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 425-449, September.
    21. Nava Ashraf & Erica Field & Jean Lee, 2014. "Household Bargaining and Excess Fertility: An Experimental Study in Zambia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2210-2237, July.
    22. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    23. Adeline Delavande & Xavier Giné & David McKenzie, 2011. "Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 479-497, April.
    24. Krinsky, Itzhak & Robb, A Leslie, 1990. "On Approximating the Statistical Properties of Elasticities: A Correction," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 189-190, February.
    25. Adeline Delavande & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2012. "The Impact of HIV Testing on Subjective Expectations and Risky Behavior in Malawi," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 1011-1036, August.
    26. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
    27. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Evaluating search and matching models using experimental data," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    28. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2022. "Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 187-221.
    29. Adeline Delavande & Basit Zafar, 2019. "University Choice: The Role of Expected Earnings, Nonpecuniary Outcomes, and Financial Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2343-2393.
    30. Jaikishan Desai & Alessandro Tarozzi, 2011. "Microcredit, Family Planning Programs, and Contraceptive Behavior: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Ethiopia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(2), pages 749-782, May.
    31. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-26.
    32. Blattman, Christopher & Jamison, Julian & Koroknay-Palicz, Tricia & Rodrigues, Katherine & Sheridan, Margaret, 2016. "Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 99-112.
    33. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    34. Jonathan de Quidt & Johannes Haushofer & Christopher Roth, 2018. "Measuring and Bounding Experimenter Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3266-3302, November.
    35. Sayaka Nakamura, 2016. "Determinants of contraceptive choice among Japanese women: ten years after the pill approval," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 553-575, September.
    36. repec:idb:brikps:77778 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2022. "Survey Experiments on Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Shattuck, D. & Kerner, B. & Gilles, K. & Hartmann, M. & Ng'ombe, T. & Guest, G., 2011. "Encouraging contraceptive uptake by motivating men to communicate about family planning: The Malawi Male Motivator project," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 101(6), pages 1089-1095.
    39. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    40. Levi, Maurice D, 1973. "Errors in the Variables Bias in the Presence of Correctly Measured Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 985-986, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ajt:wcinch:73328 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Other publications TiSEM a7e2b4d8-fed0-4e86-926f-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. de Bresser, Jochem, 2021. "Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models," Discussion Paper 2021-034, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2022. "Incentives, search engines, and the elicitation of subjective beliefs: Evidence from representative online survey experiments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 304-326.
    6. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Werner, Katharina, 2020. "Gender Norms and Labor-Supply Expectations: Experimental Evidence from Adolescents," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 259, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    9. repec:isu:genstf:201701010800006248 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Agarwal, Sandip & Jacobs, Keri L. & Weninger, Quinn, 2016. "Elicitation of Subjective Beliefs: A Pilot study of farmers' nitrogen management decision-making in Central Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001005, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier & Gaillac, Christophe & Maurel, Arnaud, 2018. "Rationalizing Rational Expectations? Tests and Deviations," IZA Discussion Papers 11989, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & Christophe Gaillac & Arnaud Maurel, 2021. "Rationalizing rational expectations: Characterizations and tests," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 817-842, July.
    13. Todd Stinebrickner & Ralph Stinebrickner, 2012. "Learning about Academic Ability and the College Dropout Decision," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(4), pages 707-748.
    14. Tincani, Michela M. & Kosse, Fabian & Miglino, Enrico, 2022. "The Effect of Preferential Admissions on the College Participation of Disadvantaged Students: The Role of Pre-College Choices," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 342, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    15. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measures Of Family Decision Processes For Econometric Analysis Of Schooling Decisions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 81-99, January.
    16. Lergetporer, Philipp & Woessmann, Ludger, 2023. "Earnings information and public preferences for university tuition: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Lergetporer, Philipp & Woessmann, Ludger, 2019. "The Political Economy of Higher Education Finance: How Information and Design Affect Public Preferences for Tuition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 145, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    18. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "Measuring Subjective Survival Expectations : Do Response Scales Matter?," Other publications TiSEM 53bc2ec3-4126-4dfb-81f3-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Gong, Yifan & Stinebrickner, Ralph & Stinebrickner, Todd, 2022. "Marriage, children, and labor supply: Beliefs and outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 148-164.
    20. Basit Zafar, 2013. "College Major Choice and the Gender Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 545-595.
    21. Sonia Laszlo & Muhammad Farhan Majid & Laëtitia Renée, 2024. "Conditional cash transfers and women's reproductive choices," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), February.
    22. Brosch, Hanna & Lergetporer, Philipp & Schoner, Florian, 2025. "Worker Beliefs about Firm Training," IZA Discussion Papers 18186, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:21/23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.