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Subjective expectations and demand for contraception

Author

Listed:
  • Grant Miller

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Áureo de Paula

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Christine Valente

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

Nearly one-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa say that they want to avoid pregnancy but are not using contraceptives. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to study this puzzle in a developing country using detailed data on women’s subjec- tive probabilistic beliefs about contraception and contraceptive attributes. Policy counterfactuals based on a structural model suggest that costly interventions such as eliminating supply constraints would only have modest effects on contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s expectations about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. We provide additional empirical support for this last result through a before/after experiment in which we find that simply (and effectively) informing women about underlying pregnancy risk increases stated intentions to use contraception substantially, in line with our initial estimates.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Miller & Áureo de Paula & Christine Valente, 2025. "Subjective expectations and demand for contraception," IFS Working Papers W25/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cardell, N. Scott, 1997. "Variance Components Structures for the Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 185-213, April.
    2. Sayaka Nakamura, 2016. "Determinants of contraceptive choice among Japanese women: ten years after the pill approval," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 553-575, September.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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