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Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception

Author

Listed:
  • Grant Miller

    (Stanford University
    NBER)

  • Áureo de Paula

    (University College London
    CeMMAP
    IFS)

  • Christine Valente

    (University of Bristol
    IZA)

Abstract

One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a before/after experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Miller & Áureo de Paula & Christine Valente, 2020. "Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception," Working Papers 551, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:551
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    Cited by:

    1. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cristina Borra & Libertad González Luna & David Patiño, 2021. "Maternal age and infant health," Economics Working Papers 1791, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Herrera-Almanza, Catalina & McCarthy, Aine Seitz, 2025. "Strategic Responses to Disparities in Spousal Desired Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Rural Tanzania," IZA Discussion Papers 18115, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Abrahamsen, Signe A. & Ginja, Rita & Riise, Julie, 2021. "School Health Programs: Education, Health, and Welfare Dependency of Young Adults," IZA Discussion Papers 14546, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Cassidy, Rachel & Groot Bruinderink, Marije & Janssens, Wendy & Morsink, Karlijn, 2021. "The power to protect: Household bargaining and female condom use," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Romuald Méango & François Poinas, 2023. "The (Option-) Value of Overstaying," CESifo Working Paper Series 10536, CESifo.
    8. repec:ajt:wcinch:73382 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. D’Exelle, Ben & Ringdal, Charlotte, 2022. "Women’s use of family planning services: An experiment on the husband’s involvement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Gabriella Conti & Pamela Giustinelli, 2025. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost‐Benefit Trade‐Offs in Health Behavior: An Application to Lockdown Compliance in the United Kingdom," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 992-1012, May.
    11. Barili, E. & Bertoli, P. & Grembi, V. & Rattini, V., 2021. "COVID Angels Fighting Daily Demons? Mental Health of Healthcare Workers and Religion," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    12. Sevin Kaytan & Stwarth Piedra-Bonilla & Tom Zohar, 2025. "The Complementary Role of Information and Contraceptive Access in Teen Pregnancy," Working Papers wp2025_2507, CEMFI.
    13. Gabriella Conti & Pamela Giustinelli, 2023. "For better or worse? Subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behavior," IFS Working Papers W23/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Gabriella Conti & Michele Giannola & Alessandro Toppeta, 2024. "Parental beliefs, perceived health risks, and time investment in children," IFS Working Papers W24/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    15. Fischer, Martin & Karlsson, Martin & Prodromidis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The Long-Term Effects of Hospital Deliveries," IZA Discussion Papers 14562, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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