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The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration

Author

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  • Emmler, Julian

    (Humboldt Univ. Berlin)

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; FAU ; IFS ; CESifo ; IZA ; ROA)

Abstract

"Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2020. "The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration," IAB-Discussion Paper 202037, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202037
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    2. Marco Caliendo & Steffen Künn & Robert Mahlstedt, 2022. "The Intended and Unintended Effects of Promoting Labor Market Mobility," CEPA Discussion Papers 42, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Alasalmi, Juho, 2023. "Self-selection of Job-to-job Migrants on Match Quality," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277633, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Riphahn, Regina T. & Sauer, Irakli, 2024. "Earnings Assimilation of Post-reunification East German Migrants in West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 17148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ostdeutschland ; Westdeutschland ; Binnenwanderung ; Einkommenseffekte ; Entscheidungskriterium ; Erwartung ; IAB-Biografiedaten ; Migrationsforschung ; Migrationstheorie ; Mobilitätsbereitschaft ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitsmarktchancen ; Arbeitsmarktrisiko ; Wanderung ; Arbeitsplatzwechsel ; 1994-2004;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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