IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp13740.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Emmler, Julian

    (Humboldt University Berlin)

  • Fitzenberger, Bernd

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

Abstract

Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2020. "The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 13740, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13740
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp13740.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility – Evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-224.
    2. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    3. Amior, Michael, 2015. "Why are higher skilled workers more mobile geographically?: the role of the job surplus," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61279, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Alwyn Young, 2013. "Inequality, the Urban-Rural Gap, and Migration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1727-1785.
    5. Viktor A. Venhorst & Frank Cörvers, 2018. "Entry into working life: Internal migration and the job match quality of higher†educated graduates," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 116-140, January.
    6. Abigail Wozniak, 2010. "Are College Graduates More Responsive to Distant Labor Market Opportunities?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(4), pages 944-970.
    7. Kristiina Huttunen & Jarle Møen & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2018. "Job Loss and Regional Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 479-509.
    8. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Florian Lehmer, 2014. "Can Regional Employment Disparities Explain the Allocation of Human Capital Across Space?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 1719-1738, October.
    9. Martin Biewen & Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Public-Sponsored Training Revisited: The Importance of Data and Methodological Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 837-897.
    10. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Matthias Parey & Jens Ruhose & Fabian Waldinger & Nicolai Netz, 2017. "The Selection of High-Skilled Emigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 776-792, December.
    12. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    13. Heckman, James J. & Navarro, Salvador, 2007. "Dynamic discrete choice and dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 341-396, February.
    14. Matias Busso & John DiNardo & Justin McCrary, 2014. "New Evidence on the Finite Sample Properties of Propensity Score Reweighting and Matching Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 885-897, December.
    15. Jorge De La Roca & Diego Puga, 2017. "Learning by Working in Big Cities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 106-142.
    16. Daniel Fackler & Lisa Rippe, 2017. "Losing Work, Moving Away? Regional Mobility After Job Loss," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 31(4), pages 457-479, December.
    17. Jennifer Hunt, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?," NBER Working Papers 7564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Borjas, George J. & Bronars, Stephen G. & Trejo, Stephen J., 1992. "Self-selection and internal migration in the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 159-185, September.
    19. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2010. "East-West migration and gender: Is there a differential effect for migrant women?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 443-454, April.
    20. Nicola Fuchs-Schuendeln & Dirk Krueger & Mathias Sommer, 2010. "Inequality Trends for Germany in the Last Two Decades: A Tale of Two Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 103-132, January.
    21. Robert Orlowski & Regina T. Riphahn, 2008. "The East German Wage Structure after Transition," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 148, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    22. Sebastian Heise & Tommaso Porzio, 2019. "Spatial Wage Gaps and Frictional Labor Markets," Staff Reports 898, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
    24. Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
    25. De la Roca, Jorge, 2017. "Selection in initial and return migration: Evidence from moves across Spanish cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 33-53.
    26. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, September.
    27. David McKenzie & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "How Important Is Selection? Experimental vs. Non-Experimental Measures of the Income Gains from Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 913-945, June.
    28. Ham, John C. & Li, Xianghong & Reagan, Patricia B., 2011. "Matching and semi-parametric IV estimation, a distance-based measure of migration, and the wages of young men," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 208-227, April.
    29. Borjas, George J, 1987. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-553, September.
    30. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Self-Selection and the Returns to Geographic Mobility: What Can Be Learned from the German Reunification "Experiment"," IZA Discussion Papers 2524, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Jurajda, Stepan & Harmgart, Heike, 2007. "When do female occupations pay more?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-187, March.
    32. Snower, Dennis J. & Merkl, Christian, 2006. "The caring hand that cripples: The East German labor market after reunification (detailed version)," Kiel Working Papers 1263, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    33. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    34. W. Smolny & M. Kirbach, 2011. "Wage differentials between East and West Germany: are they related to the location or to the people?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 873-879.
    35. David A. Jaeger & Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Holger Bonin, 2010. "Direct Evidence on Risk Attitudes and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 684-689, August.
    36. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    37. Daniel Chiquiar & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution of Wages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 239-281, April.
    38. Dennis J. Snower & Christian Merkl, 2006. "The Caring Hand that Cripples: The East German Labor Market after Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 375-382, May.
    39. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-755, September.
    40. Robert Nakosteen & Olle Westerlund, 2004. "The effects of regional migration on gross income of labour in Sweden," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 581-595, July.
    41. Robert Orlowski & Regina T. Riphahn, 2009. "The East German wage structure after transition1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(4), pages 629-659, October.
    42. Cristian Bartolucci & Claudia Villosio & Mathis Wagner, 2018. "Who Migrates and Why? Evidence from Italian Administrative Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 551-588.
    43. Robert Kaestner & Ofer Malamud, 2014. "Self-Selection and International Migration: New Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 78-91, March.
    44. Heinz Vortmann & Jan Goebel & Peter Krause & Gert G. Wagner, 2013. "Zur Entwicklung der Preisniveaus in Ost- und Westdeutschland: zugleich eine Dokumentation verschiedener Preisniveau-Zeitreihen für das geteilte und für das vereinigte Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1269, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    45. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Huber, Martin & Lechner, Michael & Wunsch, Conny, 2013. "The performance of estimators based on the propensity score," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 1-21.
    47. Heise, Sebastian & Porzio, Tommaso, 2019. "Spatial Wage Gaps in Frictional Labor Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    48. Sherwin Rosen, 1972. "Learning and Experience in the Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 7(3), pages 326-342.
    49. Jeffrey J. Yankow, 2003. "Migration, Job Change, and Wage Growth: A New Perspective on the Pecuniary Return to Geographic Mobility," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 483-516, August.
    50. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    51. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1999. "The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme. Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 313-348, July.
    52. Tunali, Insan, 2000. "Rationality of Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 893-920, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2020. "The role of unemployment and job change when estimating the returns to migration," IAB Discussion Paper 202037, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61, May.
    3. De la Roca, Jorge, 2017. "Selection in initial and return migration: Evidence from moves across Spanish cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 33-53.
    4. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Self-Selection and the Returns to Geographic Mobility: What Can Be Learned from the German Reunification "Experiment"," IZA Discussion Papers 2524, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are migrants more skilled than non-migrants? Repeat, return, and same-employer migrants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 830-849, November.
    6. Kim, Jun Sung & Lee, Jongkwan, 2019. "The role of intergenerational mobility in internal migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Mitnik, Oscar A., 2017. "Unobservable, but unimportant? The relevance of usually unobserved variables for the evaluation of labor market policies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 14-25.
    8. Mario Liebensteiner, 2014. "Estimating the Income Gain of Seasonal Labor Migration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 667-680, November.
    9. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Cristian Bartolucci & Mathis Wagner & Claudia Villosio, 2013. "Who Migrates and Why?," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 333, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    11. Kristiina Huttunen & Jarle Møen & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2018. "Job Loss and Regional Mobility," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 479-509.
    12. Matthias Parey & Jens Ruhose & Fabian Waldinger & Nicolai Netz, 2017. "The Selection of High-Skilled Emigrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 776-792, December.
    13. Alexander Patt & Jens Ruhose & Simon Wiederhold & Miguel Flores, 2017. "International Emigrant Selection on Occupational Skills," CESifo Working Paper Series 6527, CESifo.
    14. Bertoli, S. & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, J. & Ortega, F., 2013. "Crossing the border: Self-selection, earnings and individual migration decisions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 75-91.
    15. Christian Bayer & Falko Juessen, 2012. "On the Dynamics of Interstate Migration: Migration Costs and Self-Selection," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 377-401, July.
    16. Andersson, Fredrik & Holzer, Harry J. & Lane, Julia & Rosenblum, David & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2013. "Does Federally-Funded Job Training Work? Nonexperimental Estimates of WIA Training Impacts Using Longitudinal Data on Workers and Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 7621, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Eric A. Hanushek & Jens Ruhose & Ludger Woessmann, 2015. "Human Capital Quality and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for U.S. States," CESifo Working Paper Series 5411, CESifo.
    18. Eric A. Hanushek & Jens Ruhose & Ludger Woessmann, 2017. "Knowledge Capital and Aggregate Income Differences: Development Accounting for US States," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 184-224, October.
    19. Biavaschi, Costanza & Elsner, Benjamin, 2013. "Let's Be Selective about Migrant Self-Selection," IZA Discussion Papers 7865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Rosso, Anna, 2019. "Emigrant selection and wages: The case of Poland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 148-175.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; returns; selection; unemployment; moving costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P25 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13740. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.