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GVCs and the Endogenous Geography of RTAs
[Mondialisation des chaînes de valeur et la géographie endogène des accords commerciaux régionaux]

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  • Lionel Fontagné

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Gianluca Santoni

    (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales)

Abstract

There has been considerable attention paid to the endogenous nature of regional trade agreements Geography, economic size, or common history help predicting signed agreements. However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants, as trade negotiations can be used as a tool of external policy. Recent developments in terms of structural gravity help clarifying this debate by taking account of all theoretically relevant determinants of bilateral trade, as well as general equilibrium effects of signing an agreement. Indeed, the endogeneity of trade arrangements has a time dimension and is related to firm strategies. These are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate the time-varying probability for a country pair to sign a trade agreement and build upon structural gravity in general equilibrium to determine how the patterns of Global Value Chains shape the evolving geography of optimal trade agreements. Our results confirm that the endogenous geography of RTAs is shaped by the development of GVCs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2018. "GVCs and the Endogenous Geography of RTAs [Mondialisation des chaînes de valeur et la géographie endogène des accords commerciaux régionaux]," Working Papers hal-01763563, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01763563
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    1. Ross Jestrab, 2021. "The effects of domestic labour mobility on trade agreements: Empirical evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(8), pages 2238-2283, August.
    2. Bernard Hoekman, 2020. "Global Value Chains: Inter-Industry Linkages, Trade Costs and Policies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 189-193, September.
    3. Gaulier, Guillaume & Sztulman, Aude & Ünal, Deniz, 2020. "Are global value chains receding? The jury is still out. Key findings from the analysis of deflated world trade in parts and components," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 219-236.
    4. Essotanam Mamba & Afi Balaki, 2023. "Deep regional trade agreement as a driver for global value chains in Africa: the case of ECOWAS region," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 2037-2068, June.
    5. Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet & Augusto Mussi Alvim & Miguel Atienza, 2022. "Trade agreements and participation in global value chains: Empirical evidence from Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 702-738, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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