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Possible transmission of adverse shocks from the recent financial crisis to Central America through trade finance

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  • Zapata S., Willy W.
  • Eisele, María Kristina

Abstract

In this paper we explore trade finance as a transmission channel of adverse shocks to Central America. We analyze data on trade and trade finance flows, and show that they largely follow the same pattern in the region. A contraction of trade finance supply to Central America will affect trade exports negatively, and consequently impact economic growth and jobs. While until now the region has weathered the financial and European debt crises relatively well, shocks may come from a further contraction of lending in developed countries. The lending contraction can arise from losses from the recent financial crisis that have not yet been fully recognized on the balance sheets of financial institutions, from regulatory changes in raising capital requirements, and from further adverse shocks, such as the lack of a solution to the euro area sovereign debt crisis, or from all of the above. Finally, we put forward policy recommendations to mitigate the risk of transmission of shocks through trade finance to Central America.

Suggested Citation

  • Zapata S., Willy W. & Eisele, María Kristina, 2013. "Possible transmission of adverse shocks from the recent financial crisis to Central America through trade finance," Estudios y Perspectivas – Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México 141, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col031:4926
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/4926
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Francis & Matthew Osborne, 2009. "Bank regulation, capital and credit supply: Measuring the Impact of Prudential Standards," Occasional Papers 36, Financial Services Authority.
    2. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    4. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    5. Adams-Kane, Jonathon & Jia, Yueqing & Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2012. "Channels of transmission of the 2007/09 global crisis to international bank lending in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6011, The World Bank.
    6. Concha Artola & Veronique Genre, 2011. "Euro Area SMEs under Financial Constraints: Belief or Reality?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3650, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
    8. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    9. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    10. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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