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Countercyclical prudential tools in an estimated DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Serafín Frache

    () (Banco Central del Uruguay)

  • Jorge Ponce
  • Javier Garcia Cicco

Abstract

We develop a DSGE model for a small, open economy with a banking sector and endogenous default in order to perform a realistic assessment of macroprudential tools: countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and dynamic provisions (DP). The model is estimated with data for Uruguay, where dynamic provisioning is in place since early 2000s. We find that (i) the source of the shock affecting the financial system matters, to select the appropriate indicator variable under the CCB rule, and to calibrate the size of the DP. Given a positive external shock, CCB (ii) generates buffers without major real effects; (iii) GDP as an indicator variable has quicker and stronger effects over bank capital; and (iv) the ratio of credit to GDP decreases, which discourages its use as an indicator variable. DP (v) generates buffers with real effects, and (vi) seems to outperform the CCB in terms of smoothing the cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Serafín Frache & Jorge Ponce & Javier Garcia Cicco, 2017. "Countercyclical prudential tools in an estimated DSGE model," Documentos de trabajo 2017001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  • Handle: RePEc:bku:doctra:2017001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Banking regulation; minimum capital requirement; countercyclical capital buffer; reserve requirement; dynamic loan loss provision; endogenous default; Basel III; DSGE; Uruguay;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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