IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awi/wpaper/0694.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The General Equilibrium Effects of the Shale Revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Eife, Thomas

Abstract

The shale revolution is gradually transforming the industrial structure of the United States. This paper quantifies these changes in a model in which industries are linked by productivity linkages. In this framework, productivity gains in one industry may spill over to other industries. For 2015 (the most recent data available), we find that the shale revolution raised US relative wages by around 0.84 percent, whereas Mexican and Canadian wages declined by 1.12 and 1.43 percent, respectively. Judging by countries’ ability to sell goods to the US, China is the main beneficiary of the shale revolution with increased US exports of more than $14 billion (7 percent) in 2015. At the same time, the US automobile industry lost sales of more than $65 billion (almost 10 percent) because of the shale revolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Eife, Thomas, 2020. "The General Equilibrium Effects of the Shale Revolution," Working Papers 0694, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0694
    Note: This paper is part of http://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/view/schriftenreihen/sr-3.html
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-290705
    File Function: Frontdoor page on HeiDOK
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/29070/1/Eife_2020_dp694.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arezki, Rabah & Fetzer, Thiemo & Pisch, Frank, 2017. "On the comparative advantage of U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the shale gas revolution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 34-59.
    2. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    3. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    5. James Feyrer & Erin T. Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2017. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1313-1334, April.
    6. de Sousa, José, 2012. "The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 917-920.
    7. Thierry Mayer & Keith Head, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    9. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    10. J. David Hughes, 2013. "A reality check on the shale revolution," Nature, Nature, vol. 494(7437), pages 307-308, February.
    11. Alexander G. James & Brock Smith, 2020. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1905-1913, June.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    13. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    15. Levchenko, Andrei A. & Zhang, Jing, 2016. "The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 96-111.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    17. James Feyrer & Erin Mansur & Bruce Sacerdote, 2020. "Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1914-1920, June.
    18. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2015. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    20. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    21. Alexander W. Bartik & Janet Currie & Michael Greenstone & Christopher R. Knittel, 2019. "The Local Economic and Welfare Consequences of Hydraulic Fracturing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 105-155, October.
    22. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    23. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scheifele, F. & Bräuning, M. & Probst, B., 2022. "The impact of local content requirements on the development of export competitiveness in solar and wind technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Diemer, Andreas, 2020. "Spatial diffusion of local economic shocks in social networks: evidence from the US fracking boom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel & Rickardsson, Jonna, 2024. "Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in the Labor Market: Evidence from a Mining Boom and Bust," OSF Preprints tzmf2, Center for Open Science.
    3. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel & Rickardsson, Jonna, 2024. "Spatial Diffusion of Economic Shocks in the Labor Market: Evidence from a Mining Boom and Bust," OSF Preprints tzmf2_v1, Center for Open Science.
    4. Liuchun Deng, 2016. "Specialization Dynamics, Convergence, and Idea Flows," SERIES 09-2016, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Nov 2016.
    5. Berry, Kevin & James, Alexander & Smith, Brock & Watson, Brett, 2022. "Geography, Geology, and Regional Economic Development," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Coal busts and urban recovery: Evidence from China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    8. Lucia Tajoli, 2022. "Too much of a good thing? Russia-EU international trade relations at times of war," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 807-834, December.
    9. Cantner, Uwe & Vannuccini, Simone, 2021. "Pervasive technologies and industrial linkages: Modeling acquired purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 386-399.
    10. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Cieślik, Andrzej & Parteka, Aleksandra, 2021. "Relative Productivity, Country Size and Export Diversification," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-44.
    12. Porteous, Obie, 2022. "Reverse Dutch disease with trade costs: Prospects for agriculture in Africa's oil-rich economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Aymeric Vié & Alfredo J. Morales, 2021. "How Connected is Too Connected? Impact of Network Topology on Systemic Risk and Collapse of Complex Economic Systems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1327-1351, April.
    14. Bahar, Dany & Santos, Miguel A., 2018. "One more resource curse: Dutch disease and export concentration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 102-114.
    15. Stefan Borsky & Martin Jury, 2020. "The role of global supply chains in the transmission of weather induced production shocks," Graz Economics Papers 2020-13, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    16. Fabra, Natalia & Gutiérrez, Eduardo & Lacuesta, Aitor & Ramos, Roberto, 2024. "Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    17. Silva, Alvaro & Caraiani, Petre & Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Olaya-Agudelo, Juan, 2024. "Commodity prices and production networks in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Cherif, Reda, 2013. "The Dutch disease and the technological gap," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 248-255.
    19. Arsham Reisinezhad, 2024. "The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(3), pages 553-603, March.
    20. Jason P. Brown & Timothy Fitzgerald & Jeremy G. Weber, 2019. "Does Resource Ownership Matter? Oil and Gas Royalties and the Income Effect of Extraction," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1039-1064.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; shale revolution; industry linkages; Ricardian trade; oil and gas production; Strukturwandel;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awi:wpaper:0694. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabi Rauscher The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Gabi Rauscher to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/awheide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.