IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/complx/v2022y2022i1n4710234.html

Liquidity, Asset Price Volatility, and Monetary Policy Choices: Empirical Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Qing Zhu
  • Shuyu Bai
  • Jia Wang

Abstract

This article effectively identifies the high and low volatility state of asset prices in China by constructing the MS‐AR model, and further investigates the relationship between different dimensions of liquidity and asset price volatility. Moreover, we try to incorporate liquidity into the analytical framework and adopt the TVP‐SV‐VAR model to study the time‐varying characteristics between monetary policy, liquidity, asset price volatility and macroeconomy. The results are as follows: firstly, it shows that the high or low volatility state of China’s stock market and real estate market can be clearly divided, and display the consistency with the trend of asset price volatility. Secondly, liquidity has a strong ability to explain the high and low volatility state of asset prices, but it shows some hysteresis effects. Thirdly, the time‐varying results reveal that monetary policy has a regulating effect on liquidity, and the response cycle of quantitative monetary policy is relatively short, which reflects the effects of macroeconomy precisely. However, price‐based monetary policy has a longer response cycle and plays a vital role in the anticipatory adjustment and fine‐tuning of asset price volatility. These conclusions can provide an explanation for the attention to asset price bubbles and potential financial risks, and offer decision‐making references for the central bank to implement differentiated and dynamic monetary policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Qing Zhu & Shuyu Bai & Jia Wang, 2022. "Liquidity, Asset Price Volatility, and Monetary Policy Choices: Empirical Evidence from China," Complexity, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2022(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:complx:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:n:4710234
    DOI: 10.1155/2022/4710234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4710234
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2022/4710234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merrouche, Ouarda & Nier, Erlend, 2017. "Capital inflows, monetary policy, and financial imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 117-142.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    5. Zhang, Ailian & Pan, Mengmeng & Liu, Bai & Weng, Yin-Che, 2020. "Systemic risk: The coordination of macroprudential and monetary policies in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 415-429.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Legroux, Vincent & Rahmouni-Rousseau, Imène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula & Valla, Natacha, 2022. "Stabilising virtues of central banks: (Re)matching bank liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    9. Hui Zhang & Hao Huang, 2017. "An Empirical Study of the Asset Price Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 1278-1288, June.
    10. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    12. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Matsuoka, Tarishi, 2018. "Banks and liquidity crises in emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 43-62.
    14. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
    15. Katrin Assenmacher & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    16. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    17. Quoc Trung Tran, 2020. "Expansionary monetary policy and corporate investment in an emerging market," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 239-255, December.
    18. Walerych, Małgorzata & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2021. "Fed and ECB monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Seungduck Lee, 2020. "Money, Asset Prices, and the Liquidity Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1435-1466, September.
    20. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    21. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Signoretti, Federico M., 2014. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-174.
    22. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "Liquidity, Risk Premia, and the Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 309-328, November.
    23. Chengcheng Liu & Peng Song & Bai Huang, 2019. "The dynamic effectiveness of monetary policy in China: evidence from a TVP-SV-FAVAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(17), pages 1402-1410, October.
    24. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, May.
    25. Zhang, Tianyang & Lence, Sergio H., 2022. "Liquidity and asset pricing: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    26. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    27. Klaas Baks & Mr. Charles Frederick Kramer, 1999. "Global Liquidity and Asset Prices: Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 1999/168, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Pan, Fanghui, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and output shocks on the real estate market in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    29. Han, Jong-Suk & Hur, Joonyoung, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Korea: A time-varying coefficient VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 142-152.
    30. Huang, Ying & Neftci, Salih N. & Guo, Feng, 2008. "Swap curve dynamics across markets: Case of US dollar versus HK dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 79-93, February.
    31. Moosavi Mohseni, Reza & Cao, Jiling, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial economic growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    32. Nakajima, Jouchi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 225-245, September.
    33. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    34. José Ferreira Machado, 2006. "Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions," Working Papers w200608, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    35. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2007. "‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 215-239, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2011. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1, pages 43-52.
    3. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Geldpolitik und Vermögensmärkte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 56-65.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, Inflation and Asset Prices in a Time-Varying Framework for the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 08/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    5. Singh, Bhupal & Nadkarni, Avadhoot R., 2020. "Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07041 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    8. Xiao Weiguo & Zhao Yang & Yuan Wei, 2013. "Liquidity Characteristics, Implicit Information of Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 56-66, December.
    9. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    10. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    12. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    13. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    14. Han, Jong-Suk & Hur, Joonyoung, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in Korea: A time-varying coefficient VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 142-152.
    15. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Willi Semmler & Stefan Mittnik, 2012. "Estimating a Banking-Macro Model for Europe Using a Multi-Regime VAR," EcoMod2012 4122, EcoMod.
    17. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2750, CESifo.
    18. Stefan Mittnik & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The Instability of the Banking Sector and Macrodynamics: Theory and Empirics," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_080, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    19. Borgy, Vladimir & Clerc, Laurent & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2014. "Measuring aggregate risk: Can we robustly identify asset-price boom–bust cycles?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 132-150.
    20. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    21. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:complx:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:n:4710234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/8503 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.