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Agency business cycles

Author

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  • Golosov, Mikhail

    (Department of Economics, University of Chicago)

  • Menzio, Guido

    (Department of Economics, New York University)

Abstract

We develop a theory of endogenous and stochastic fluctuations in economic activity. Individual firms choose to randomize over firing or keeping workers who performed poorly in the past to give them an ex-ante incentive to exert effort. Different firms choose to correlate the outcome of their randomization to reduce the probability with which they fire non-performing workers. Correlated randomization leads to aggregate fluctuations. Aggregate fluctuations are endogenous---they emerge because firms choose to randomize and they choose to randomize in a correlated fashion---and they are stochastic---they are the manifestation of a randomization process. The hallmark of a theory of endogenous and stochastic fluctuations is that the stochastic process for aggregate "shocks" is an equilibrium object.

Suggested Citation

  • Golosov, Mikhail & Menzio, Guido, 2020. "Agency business cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:3379
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yunan Li & Cheng Wang, 2022. "Endogenous Labor Market Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 849-881, May.
    3. Jan Eeckhout & Ilse Lindenlaub, 2019. "Unemployment Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 175-234, October.
    4. Paolo Martellini & Guido Menzio & Ludo Visschers, 2021. "Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(637), pages 2203-2232.
    5. Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2023. "Herding through booms and busts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Tomohiro HIRANO & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2021. "The Wobbly Economy; Global Dynamics with Phase Transitions and State Transitions," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    7. Yusuf Mercan & Benjamin Schoefer & Petr Sedláček, 2020. "A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8731, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous and stochastic cycles; coordinated randomization; unemployment fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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