IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/iecrev/v63y2022i2p849-881.html

Endogenous Labor Market Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Yunan Li
  • Cheng Wang

Abstract

We offer a new way of thinking about labor market fluctuations. In a perfectly stationary physical environment of the labor market, moral hazard and competition in long‐term contracting generate cycles in market tightness, which may induce job creation and destruction, and two‐period and longer cycles in wages and employment. Long‐term contracts use termination as an incentive device. Underlying the cycles is an intertemporal negative externality. In prescribing a larger (smaller) probability of termination, each current period long‐term contract puts pressure on all next period long‐term contracts to prescribe a smaller (larger) probability of termination, by affecting the tightness of the market for long‐term contracts in the next period.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunan Li & Cheng Wang, 2022. "Endogenous Labor Market Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 849-881, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:63:y:2022:i:2:p:849-881
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12553
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12553
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/iere.12553?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
    2. Javier Suarez & Oren Sussman, 2007. "Financial distress, bankruptcy law and the business cycle," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-35, January.
    3. Suarez, Javier & Sussman, Oren, 1997. "Endogenous Cycles in a Stiglitz-Weiss Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 47-71, September.
    4. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    5. Cheng Wang, 2013. "Incentives And The Cost Of Firing In An Equilibrium Labor Market Model With Endogenous Layoffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 443-472, May.
    6. Donald P. Morgan & Bertrand Rime & Philip E. Strahan, 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(4), pages 1555-1584.
    7. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    8. Golosov, Mikhail & Menzio, Guido, 2020. "Agency business cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    9. Figueroa, Nicolás & Leukhina, Oksana, 2018. "Cash flows and credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 318-332.
    10. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    11. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940-965.
    12. Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
    13. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    14. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
    15. Spear, Stephen E. & Wang, Cheng, 2005. "When to fire a CEO: optimal termination in dynamic contracts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 239-256, February.
    16. Pietro Reichlin & Paolo Siconolfi, 2004. "Optimal debt contracts and moral hazard along the business cycle," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 24(1), pages 75-109, July.
    17. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    18. Florian Sniekers, 2018. "Persistence And Volatility Of Beveridge Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 665-698, May.
    19. Giovanni Favara, 2012. "Agency Problems and Endogenous Investment Fluctuations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2301-2342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Stachurski, John & Vachadze, George, 2018. "Volatile capital flows and financial integration: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 170-192.
    2. Spiros Bougheas & Pasquale Commendatore & Laura Gardini & Ingrid Kubin, 2022. "Financial development cycles and income inequality in a model with good and bad projects," Discussion Papers 2022/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    3. Wang, Cheng & Yang, Youzhi, 2015. "Equilibrium matching and termination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 208-229.
    4. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2020. "Cycles of credit expansion and misallocation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    5. Figueroa, Nicolás & Leukhina, Oksana, 2018. "Cash flows and credit cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 318-332.
    6. Nika Lazaryan & Thomas A. Lubik, 2019. "Global dynamics in a search and matching model of the labor market," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 461-497, September.
    7. Figueroa, Nicolás & Leukhina, Oksana, 2015. "Lending terms and aggregate productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-21.
    8. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Yang, Youzhi, 2009. "Essays on Repated Moral Hazard," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001746, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present and Future," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 217-238, June.
    11. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2014. "Credit Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Instability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 592-611, December.
    12. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    13. Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei & Xu, Zhenyang, 2025. "Aggregate demand externality and self-fulfilling default cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2020. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 1-47, January.
    15. Créchet, Jonathan, 2024. "A model of risk sharing in a dual labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    16. Matsuyama, Kiminori & Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura, 2016. "Revisiting the model of credit cycles with Good and Bad projects," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 525-556.
    17. Axelson, Ulf & Bond, Philip, 2015. "Wall Street occupations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 37448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Schaal, Edouard & Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu, 2023. "Herding through booms and busts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    19. Jonathan Créchet, 2023. "Risk Sharing in a Dual Labor Market," Working Papers 2307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    20. Wei, Jianxing & Xu, Tong, 2024. "Banking supervision with loopholes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:63:y:2022:i:2:p:849-881. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.