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Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment

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  • Paolo Martellini
  • Guido Menzio
  • Ludo Visschers

Abstract

We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use a simple but rich search-theoretic model of the labour market in which the UE, EU and EE rates are all endogenous. Analytically, we show that an increase in the discount rate lowers the UE rate and, under some natural conditions, it lowers the EU rate. Quantitatively, we show that an increase in the discount rate from 4% to 10% generates a 3.5% decline in the UE rate and a 6% decline in the EU rate. These findings are at odds with the actual behaviour of the US labour market over the business cycle, which features a negative comovement between the UE and EU rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Martellini & Guido Menzio & Ludo Visschers, 2021. "Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(637), pages 2203-2232.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:637:p:2203-2232.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueaa138
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory, Victoria & Menzio, Guido & Wiczer, David, 2025. "The alpha beta gamma of the labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Bjoern Bruegemann, 2023. "Invariance of Unemployment and Vacancy Dynamics with Respect to Diminishing Returns to Labor at the Firm Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 915-942, December.
    3. Davis, Colin & Hashimoto, Ken-ichi, 2022. "Productivity growth, industry location patterns and labor market frictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2025. "Modeling and evaluating the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 on US unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Malak Kandoussi & Fran ois Langot, 2021. "On the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on US unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2021-01, TEPP.
    6. Clymo, Alex, 2020. "Discounts, rationing, and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    8. Singh, Aarti & Suda, Jacek & Zervou, Anastasia, 2021. "Heterogeneous labour market response to monetary policy: small versus large firms," Working Papers 2021-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2021.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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