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Big hits, export concentration and volatility

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  • Shamnaaz Sufrauj

    ()

  • Stefano Schiavo

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  • Massimo Riccaboni

    ()

Abstract

Recent empirical work has documented the high concentration of trade flows, and the large role played by few “big hits” in each country’s export. We propose a simple stochastic benchmark against which we assess each economy’s actual number of “big hits”. We show that most European countries underperform the benchmark, while China, the US and Germany do better. A low number of “big hits” (relative to our prediction) is associated with higher export volatility. Looking at possible determinants of “big hits”, we find they depend on the actual performance of each country, so that industrial policy needs to be country-specific. Copyright Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Shamnaaz Sufrauj & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2015. "Big hits, export concentration and volatility," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 32(2), pages 135-166, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:32:y:2015:i:2:p:135-166
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-015-0014-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mercedes Campi & Marco Due~nas & Le Li & Huabin Wu, 2018. "Diversification, economies of scope, and exports growth of Chinese firms," Papers 1801.02681, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Big hits; Trade networks; Export concentration; Industrial policy; Volatility of trade; F13; F14; F43; O19;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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