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Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application

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  • Karsten Mau

    (Leuphana University of Lüneburg)

Abstract

The paper revisits the relationship between GDP per capita and diversification, using classical and more recent trade theory. Three theoretical findings are presented: (i) competitive models yield predictions only for the extensive product margin; (ii) countries continuously diversify their production and exports—a major controversy in the empirical literature; and (iii) causality runs from diversification to GDP per capita, and not the other way around. The theoretical analysis also provides indication for the appropriateness of alternative measures of diversification, and enables estimating the relationship to economic development in a gravity-type parametric specification. Using detailed data on countries’ exports, the case of re-specialization is rejected. Inference of causality reveals some evidence for GDP per capita affecting the level of diversification, but stronger support for diversification affecting GDP per capita. Generally, both variables are highly endogenous as they are both driven by the technology parameters in standard models of economic growth and international trade.

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  • Karsten Mau, 2016. "Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 351-381, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:152:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-015-0241-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-015-0241-x
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    2. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Vurchio, Davide & Cantore, Nicola & Clara, Michele, 2021. "On the evolution of comparative advantage: Path-dependent versus path-defying changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Clément Anne, 2016. "Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries," Working Papers halshs-01381143, HAL.
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    5. Roberto Basile & Aleksandra Parteka & Rosanna Pittiglio, 2018. "Export diversification and economic development: A dynamic spatial data analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 634-650, August.
    6. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    7. Gnidchenko, A., 2018. "Structural Transformation in International Trade (2001-2015): Towards a New Classification," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 62-86.
    8. Ignacio del Rosal, 2019. "Export Diversification And Export Performance By Destination Country," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 58-74, January.
    9. Clement ANNE, 2016. "Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries," Working Papers 201615, CERDI.
    10. Massimo Tamberi, 2018. "Productivity Differentiantion Along the Development Process: a "Meso" Approach," Working Papers 427, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Tamberi, Massimo, 2020. "Productivity differentials along the development process: A “MESO” approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 99-107.
    13. Gnidchenko, Andrey A., 2021. "Structural transformation and quality ladders: Evidence from the new Theil's decomposition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 281-291.
    14. Parteka, Aleksandra, 2020. "What drives cross-country differences in export variety? A bilateral panel approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 48-56.
    15. Wenni Lei & Yuwei Luo, 2022. "Institutions Rule in Export Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    16. Andrey A. Gnidchenko, 2019. "Structural Transformation and Quality Ladders: Solving the “Theil's Cube”," HSE Working papers WP BRP 218/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Aid for Trade, Export Product Diversification and Import Product Diversification," EconStor Preprints 223021, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Kamil Galuscak & Ivan Sutoris, 2016. "Margins of Trade: Czech Firms Before, During and After the Crisis," Working Papers 2016/12, Czech National Bank.
    19. Cieślik, Andrzej & Parteka, Aleksandra, 2021. "Relative Productivity, Country Size and Export Diversification," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-44.
    20. Andrzej Cieślik, 2017. "Krzywa przedmiotowej dywersyfikacji eksportu w świetle modelu ricardiańskiego," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 5-27.
    21. Devran Sanli & Aziz Konukman, 2022. "An Empirical Analysis of Product Concentration and Income in High-Technology Exports," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(36), pages 153-185, June.
    22. Dongyeol Lee, 2019. "Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries," IMF Working Papers 2019/117, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export diversification; Extensive margin; Gravity equation; Economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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