Debt Contagion in Europe: A Panel-Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis
The European sovereign-debt crisis began in Greece when the government announced in December, 2009, that its debt reached 121% of GDP (or 300 billion euros) and its 2009 budget deficit was 12.7% of GDP, four times the level allowed by the Maastricht Treaty. The Greek crisis soon spread to other Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Using quarterly data for the 2000–2011 period, we implement a panel-vector autoregressive (PVAR) model for 11 EMU countries to examine the extent to which a rise in a country’s bond-yield spread or debt-to-GDP ratio affects another EMU countries’ fiscal and macroeconomic outcomes. To distinguish between interdependence and contagion among EMU countries, we compare results obtained for the pre-crisis period (2000–2007) with the crisis period (2008–2011) and control for global risk aversion.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011.
"Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach,"
Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales
1108, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Working Papers 11-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Causality and contagion in peripheral EMU public debt markets: a dynamic approach," IREA Working Papers 201116, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2011.
- Caggiano, Giovanni & Greco, Luciano, 2012.
"Fiscal and financial determinants of Eurozone sovereign spreads,"
Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 774-776.
- Giovanni Caggiano & Luciano Greco, 2012. "Fiscal and Financial Determinants of Eurozone Sovereign Spreads," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0148, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
- Ryan R. Brady & Victoria A. Greenfield, 2009.
"Competing Explanations of U.S. Defense Industry Consolidation in the 1990s and Their Policy Implications,"
Departmental Working Papers
22, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
- Ryan R. Brady & Victoria A. Greenfield, 2010. "COMPETING EXPLANATIONS OF U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IN THE 1990s AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 288-306, 04.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011.
"Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1164, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2013. "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 13109, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Luigi Marattin & Paolo Paesani & Simone Salotti, 2012. "Assessing the Pre-Crisis Advantages of the EMU for Sovereign Debt Issuers: A Panel VAR Analysis," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 7-22, January-M.
- Ludvigson, Sydney, 1998.
"The Channel of Monetary Transmission to Demand: Evidence from the Market for Automobile Credit,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 365-383, August.
- Sydney Ludvigson, 1996. "The channel of monetary transmission to demand: evidence from the market for automobile credit," Research Paper 9625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011.
"Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
- Bolton, Patrick & Jeanne, Olivier, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," NBER Working Papers 16899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Raphael A Espinoza, 2011. "Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012.
"Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Burcu Erdogan, 2010. "Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1078, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
- Atsuyuki Naka & David Tufte, 1997. "Examining impulse response functions in cointegrated systems," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(12), pages 1593-1603.
- Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Mark Mink & Jakob de Haan, 2012.
"Contagion during the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis,"
DNB Working Papers
335, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
- Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2006. "Stock prices and bank loan dynamics in a developing country: The case of Malaysia," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 71-89, May.
- Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274.
- repec:ucm:wpaper:08-11 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:2:y:2013:i:4:p:318-340:d:31485. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.