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Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • Ana Catarina Ramos Félix

Abstract

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area, a main concern for European leaders is the prevention of the possible contagion from distressed countries. In our research, we assess if there is a spillover effect from those countries and which determinants can be considered transmission mechanisms of the sovereign debt crisis. We use a panel of 13 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom), covering the period Q1:2000 to Q1:2013 and we also analyse each country individually, on the basis of a SUR analysis. We find that those countries with worse macro and fiscal fundamentals are more vulnerable to contagion and are more affected by international liquidity and credit risks.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Ana Catarina Ramos Félix, 2014. "Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp042014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 369, European Central Bank.
    3. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    5. Kilponen, Juha & Laakkonen, Helinä & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2012. "Sovereign risk, European crisis resolution policies and bond yields," Research Discussion Papers 22/2012, Bank of Finland.
    6. R. Jankowitsch & H. Mosenbacher & S. Pichler, 2006. "Measuring the liquidity impact on EMU government bond prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 153-169.
    7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    8. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    9. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 107-134, February.
    10. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
    11. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Juha Kilponen & Helinä Laakkonen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2015. "Sovereign Risk, European Crisis-Resolution Policies, and Bond Spreads," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 285-323, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moisă Altăr & Alexandru-Adrian Cramer & Adam-Nelu Altăr-Samuel, 2015. "Sovereign Financial Asset Market Linkages across Europe During the Euro Zone Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 29-49, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign yield spreads; spillover effects; contagion.;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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