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Financial inclusion and bank stability in ASEAN: A non-linear analysis of risk and opportunity

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  • Rahman, Mahfuzur
  • Shah, Syed Faisal
  • Albaity, Mohamed

Abstract

The rapid expansion of financial inclusion (FIC) and fintech (FIN) in ASEAN presents a critical question: do these developments fortify or jeopardize bank stability? This study is the first to integrally examine the non-linear impacts of FIC, FIN, economic freedom (EF), and financial freedom (FF) on bank stability across 584 banks in six ASEAN countries (2008–2022). Moving beyond conventional linear models, we employ quantile regression to uncover threshold-dependent and often opposing effects across the stability distribution. We find that FIC has an inverted U-shaped relationship with stability, affirming the ‘too much finance’ hypothesis. Fintech development enhances stability for mid-tier banks but introduces cybersecurity risks that can destabilize highly robust institutions. While financial freedom supports fragile banks, economic freedom can erode stability for stronger ones by intensifying competition. These effects are heterogeneous, varying significantly by country income level and institutional maturity. A key policy recommendation is that regulators should avoid one-size-fits-all approaches; instead, they must calibrate financial inclusion targets and fintech oversight based on the specific stability profile and institutional capacity of their banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Mahfuzur & Shah, Syed Faisal & Albaity, Mohamed, 2026. "Financial inclusion and bank stability in ASEAN: A non-linear analysis of risk and opportunity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:83:y:2026:i:c:s0275531926000152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2026.103288
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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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