IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v50y2019icp134-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does uncertainty influence the leverage-investment association in Chinese firms?

Author

Listed:
  • Arif Khan, Muhammad
  • Qin, Xuezhi
  • Jebran, Khalil

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of firm-specific, market-based, CAPM-based, and economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between leverage and investment for firms of different nature, i.e., state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). The study uses a panel of Chinese listed firms covering the period 1999–2016 and applies a robust two-step system Generalized Method of Moments technique to cope with the endogeneity problem. The findings show that leverage has a significant and adverse impact on non-SOEs investment behavior. The results further show that firm-specific and market uncertainties exacerbate the negative effect of leverage on investment for non-SOEs. However, economic policy uncertainty and CAPM-based uncertainty attenuate the association between leverage and investment for SOEs and non-SOEs, respectively. Overall the results suggest that the impact of leverage on investment can be mitigating or exacerbating depending on the underlying uncertainty and the nature of the enterprise.

Suggested Citation

  • Arif Khan, Muhammad & Qin, Xuezhi & Jebran, Khalil, 2019. "Does uncertainty influence the leverage-investment association in Chinese firms?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-152.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:134-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.04.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531918311103
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.04.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 282-287, March.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Biddle, Gary C. & Hilary, Gilles & Verdi, Rodrigo S., 2009. "How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2-3), pages 112-131, December.
    4. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    5. Rozalia Pal & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Financing constraints and firms' cash policy in the euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 153-171.
    6. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2014. "The Response Of Firms' Leverage To Risk: Evidence From Uk Public Versus Nonpublic Manufacturing Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, January.
    7. Deng, Yongheng & Morck, Randall & Wu, Jing & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Stimuli, Ownership Structure, and China's Housing Market," Ratio Working Papers 173, The Ratio Institute.
    8. Sung C. Bae, 2009. "On the interactions of financing and investment decisions: Evidence from Chinese industrial companies," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(8), pages 691-699, July.
    9. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    10. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    11. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Wong, Sonia M.L., 2008. "Leverage and investment under a state-owned bank lending environment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 642-653, December.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "On the investment sensitivity of debt under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 25-27, January.
    13. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    14. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 216-225, April.
    15. Sungmoon Jung & Gihyun Kwak, 2018. "Firm Characteristics, Uncertainty and Research and Development (R&D) Investment: The Role of Size and Innovation Capacity," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Donadelli, Michael & Persha, Lauren, 2014. "Understanding emerging market equity risk premia: Industries, governance and macroeconomic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 284-309.
    17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    18. Miroslava Straska & Gregory Waller & Yao Yu, 2012. "Does investment improve when firms go private?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 124-142, January.
    19. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-288, March.
    20. Bo, Hong & Zhang, Zhihai, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on firm investment: evidence from machinery industry in Liaoning province of China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 335-352, December.
    21. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    22. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    23. Abdul-Haque & Shaoping, Wang, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment evidence from a panel of Chinese firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 237-248, September.
    24. Phan, Quynh Trang, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment with financial constraints: Vietnamese listed firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-280.
    25. Alessandra Guariglia & Simona Mateut, 2016. "External finance and trade credit extension in China: does political affiliation make a difference?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4-6), pages 319-344, April.
    26. Liqiang Chen, 2017. "Managerial incentives, R&D investments and cash flows," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 898-913, August.
    27. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
    28. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    29. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    30. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    31. Saidani, Wien & Msolli, Badreddine & Ajina, Aymen, 2017. "Research and development investment and financing constraints: The case of Japan," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1336-1342.
    32. Andrew Benito & Ignacio Hernando, 2007. "Firm Behaviour And Financial Pressure: Evidence From Spanish Panel Data," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 283-311, October.
    33. Chen, Shimin & Sun, Zheng & Tang, Song & Wu, Donghui, 2011. "Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 259-271, April.
    34. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    35. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    36. Dibiasi, Andreas & Abberger, Klaus & Siegenthaler, Michael & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "The effects of policy uncertainty on investment: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 38-67.
    37. Abdul Rashid & Muhammad Saeed, 2017. "Firms’ investment decisions – explaining the role of uncertainty," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 833-860, October.
    38. Jun‐Koo Kang & Anil Shivdasani & Takeshi Yamada, 2000. "The Effect of Bank Relations on Investment Decisions: An Investigation of Japanese Takeover Bids," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2197-2218, October.
    39. Ma, Yiqun, 2015. "Uncertainty and investment: Evidence from the Australian mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 191-201.
    40. An, Heng & Chen, Yanyan & Luo, Danglun & Zhang, Ting, 2016. "Political uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 174-189.
    41. Wang, Yizhong & Wei, Yueling & Song, Frank M., 2017. "Uncertainty and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 176-200.
    42. Christopher A. Hennessy, 2004. "Tobin's "Q", Debt Overhang, and Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1717-1742, August.
    43. Bo, Hong & Sterken, Elmer, 2002. "Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment: Dutch evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 179-193, March.
    44. Thoa, Tu Thi Kim & Uyen, Nguyen Thi Uyen, 2017. "Banking system reform and investment–cash flow relation: Case of a small transition economy," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 500-515.
    45. Aivazian, Varouj A. & Ge, Ying & Qiu, Jiaping, 2005. "The impact of leverage on firm investment: Canadian evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 277-291, March.
    46. Mehmet Umutlu, 2010. "Firm leverage and investment decisions in an emerging market," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 1005-1013, August.
    47. Xiaoying Deng & Seow Eng Ong & Meijun Qian, 2018. "Real Estate Risk, Corporate Investment and Financing Choice," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 87-113, July.
    48. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Power, Gabriel J., 2016. "Asset fixity and backward-bending investment demand functions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-160.
    49. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1994. "Politicians and Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 995-1025.
    50. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    51. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    52. Abdul Rashid, 2011. "How does private firms' investment respond to uncertainty?: Some evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 339-347, August.
    53. Fan, Joseph P.H. & Huang, Jun & Zhu, Ning, 2013. "Institutions, ownership structures, and distress resolution in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 71-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arif Khan, Muhammad & Qin, Xuezhi & Jebran, Khalil & Ullah, Irfan, 2020. "Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Cheng, Dong & Yu, Jian & Zhang, Dayong & Zheng, Wenping, 2020. "Is heterogeneous capital depreciation important for estimating firm-level productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arif Khan, Muhammad & Qin, Xuezhi & Jebran, Khalil & Ullah, Irfan, 2020. "Uncertainty and R&D investment: Does product market competition matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Muhammad Arif Khan & Xuezhi Qin & Khalil Jebran & Abdul Rashid, 2020. "The Sensitivity of Firms’ Investment to Uncertainty and Cash Flow: Evidence From Listed State-Owned Enterprises and Non-State-Owned Enterprises in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440209, January.
    3. Muhammad Arif Khan & Xuezhi Qin & Khalil Jebran, 2020. "Uncertainty and leverage nexus: does trade credit matter?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 355-389, September.
    4. Muhammad Arif Khan & Xuezhi Qin & Khalil Jebran, 0. "Uncertainty and leverage nexus: does trade credit matter?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    5. Alaali, Fatema, 2020. "The effect of oil and stock price volatility on firm level investment: The case of UK firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Wang, Yizhong & Wei, Yueling & Song, Frank M., 2017. "Uncertainty and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 176-200.
    7. Anh‐Tuan Doan & Anh‐Tuan Le & Quan Tran, 2020. "Economic uncertainty, ownership structure and small and medium enterprises performance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 102-137, June.
    8. Khémiri, Wafa & Noubbigh, Hédi, 2020. "Does sub-Saharan Africa overinvest? Evidence from a panel of non-financial firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 118-130.
    9. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    10. Yang, Zhenyi & Yu, Yiwei & Zhang, Yubing & Zhou, Sili, 2019. "Policy uncertainty exposure and market value: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    14. Naeem, Kashif & Li, Matthew C., 2019. "Corporate investment efficiency: The role of financial development in firms with financing constraints and agency issues in OECD non-financial firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-68.
    15. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    16. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Wei Lin & Chi-Chuan Lee, 0. "The impact of peer effects and economic policy-related uncertainty on U.S. life insurers' investment decisions," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 0, pages 1-31.
    17. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: International evidence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    19. Liu, Guanchun & Hu, May & Cheng, Chen, 2021. "The information transfer effects of political connections on mitigating policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Im, Hyun Joong & Kang, Ya & Shon, Janghoon, 2020. "How does uncertainty influence target capital structure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Uncertainty; Leverage; State-owned enterprises; Non-state-owned enterprises; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:134-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.