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Publication selection in health policy research: The winner's curse hypothesis

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  • Costa-Font, Joan
  • McGuire, Alistair
  • Stanley, Tom

Abstract

There is a widely discussed problem of publication bias in medical and health services research. Where quantitative effects form the basis of a publication a ‘winner's curse’ curse may apply. This phenomenon may occur as prospective authors of research papers compete by reporting ‘more extreme and spectacular results’ in order to increase the chances of their paper being accepted for publication. This paper examines this phenomenon using quantitative findings on income and price elasticities as reported in health economics research. We find robust statistical evidence that higher-impact journals preferentially report larger empirical estimates of these elasticities. That is, we find robust evidence of a winner's curse hypothesis contributing to the existence of publication bias found in both the income and the price elasticities of health care and drugs, as well as value of life research.

Suggested Citation

  • Costa-Font, Joan & McGuire, Alistair & Stanley, Tom, 2013. "Publication selection in health policy research: The winner's curse hypothesis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 78-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:109:y:2013:i:1:p:78-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2012.10.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ugur, Mehmet & Guidi, Francesco & Solomon, Edna & Trushin, Eshref, 2014. "R&D investment, productivity and rates of return: A meta-analysis of the evidence on OECD firms and industries," MPRA Paper 59686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Oct 2014.
    5. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    6. Ugur, Mehmet & Churchill, Sefa Awaworyi & Luong, Hoang M., 2020. "What do we know about R&D spillovers and productivity? Meta-analysis evidence on heterogeneity and statistical power," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    7. Nelson, Jon Paul, 2020. "Fixed-effect versus random-effects meta-analysis in economics: A study of pass-through rates for alcohol beverage excise taxes," Economics Discussion Papers 2020-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Irsova, Zuzana & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D., 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner’s Guide," EconStor Preprints 273719, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Ugur, Mehmet, 2019. "Innovation, technology adoption and employment: Evidence synthesis," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 28307, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    10. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Hoang M. Luong & Mehmet Ugur, 2022. "Does intellectual property protection deliver economic benefits? A multi‐outcome meta‐regression analysis of the evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1477-1509, December.
    11. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Hinz, Thomas & Zigova, Katarina, 2022. "Bias and careers: Evidence from the aid effectiveness literature," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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