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A comparative institutional analysis of the Fukushima nuclear disaster: Lessons and policy implications

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  • Aoki, Masahiko
  • Rothwell, Geoffrey

Abstract

This paper analyzes the causes, responses, and consequences of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident (March 2011) by comparing these with Three Mile Island (March 1979) and Chernobyl (April 1986). We identify three generic modes of organizational coordination: modular, vertical, and horizontal. By relying on comparative institutional analysis, we compare the modes' performance characteristics in terms of short-term and long-term coordination, preparedness for shocks, and responsiveness to shocks. We derive general lessons, including the identification of three shortcomings of integrated Japanese electric utilities: (1) decision instability that can lead to system failure after a large shock, (2) poor incentives to innovate, and (3) the lack of defense-in-depth strategies for accidents. Our suggested policy response is to introduce an independent Nuclear Safety Commission, and an Independent System Operator to coordinate buyers and sellers on publicly owned transmission grids. Without an independent safety regulator, or a very well established “safety culture,” profit-maximizing behavior by an entrenched electricity monopoly will not necessarily lead to a social optimum with regard to nuclear power plant safety. All countries considering continued operation or expansion of their nuclear power industries must strive to establish independent, competent, and respected safety regulators, or prepare for nuclear power plant accidents.

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  • Aoki, Masahiko & Rothwell, Geoffrey, 2013. "A comparative institutional analysis of the Fukushima nuclear disaster: Lessons and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 240-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:53:y:2013:i:c:p:240-247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.058
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    1. Aoki, Masahiko, 2010. "Corporations in Evolving Diversity: Cognition, Governance, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199218530.
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    6. Masahiko Aoki, 2011. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," Development Economics Working Papers 23196, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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    3. Goebel, Jan & Krekel, Christian & Tiefenbach, Tim & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2013. "Natural Disaster, Policy Action, and Mental Well-Being: The Case of Fukushima," IZA Discussion Papers 7691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jan Goebel & Christian Krekel & Tim Tiefenbach & Nicholas R. Ziebarth, 2014. "Natural Disaster, Environmental Concerns, Well-Being and Policy Action," CINCH Working Paper Series 1405, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Competent in Competition and Health.
    5. Chuanwang Sun & Nan Lyu & Xiaoling Ouyang, 2014. "Chinese Public Willingness to Pay to Avoid Having Nuclear Power Plants in the Neighborhood," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-27, October.
    6. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "The 2011 Japanese energy crisis: Effects on the magnitude and pattern of load demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-19, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. S. Taniguchi, Kazuhiro, 2022. "Why Fukushima? A diachronic and multilevel comparative institutional analysis of a nuclear disaster," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Miikka J. Lehtonen & Ainomaija Haarla & Masaaki Kotabe, 0. "Beyond the inflection point: how and why individuals promote inventions in Japan," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-25.
    9. Portugal-Pereira, J. & Ferreira, P. & Cunha, J. & Szklo, A. & Schaeffer, R. & Araújo, M., 2018. "Better late than never, but never late is better: Risk assessment of nuclear power construction projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 158-166.
    10. Miikka J. Lehtonen & Ainomaija Haarla & Masaaki Kotabe, 2020. "Beyond the inflection point: how and why individuals promote inventions in Japan," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 505-529, November.
    11. Wang, Nannan & Chen, Ji & Yao, Shengnan & Chang, Yen-Chiang, 2018. "A meta-frontier DEA approach to efficiency comparison of carbon reduction technologies on project level," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2606-2612.
    12. Jan Goebel & Christian Krekel & Tim Tiefenbach & Nicolas Ziebarth, 2015. "How natural disasters can affect environmental concerns, risk aversion, and even politics: evidence from Fukushima and three European countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1137-1180, October.
    13. Pfenninger, Stefan & Keirstead, James, 2015. "Comparing concentrating solar and nuclear power as baseload providers using the example of South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 303-314.
    14. George Halkos & Argyro Zisiadou, 2020. "An Overview of the Technological Environmental Hazards over the Last Century," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 411-428, July.
    15. Michael Quinlan, 2020. "Five challenges to humanity: Learning from pattern/repeat failures in past disasters?," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 444-466, September.
    16. Rothwell, Geoffrey, 2022. "Projected electricity costs in international nuclear power markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    17. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2014. "Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 45-56.
    18. Rothwell, Geoffrey & Wood, Thomas W. & Daly, Don & Weimar, Mark R., 2014. "Sustainability of light water reactor fuel cycles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 16-23.
    19. Mu, Ruimin & Zuo, Jian & Yuan, Xueliang, 2015. "China's approach to nuclear safety — From the perspective of policy and institutional system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 161-172.
    20. Jang, Yeonju & Park, Eunil, 2020. "Social acceptance of nuclear power plants in Korea: The role of public perceptions following the Fukushima accident," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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