IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v202y2025ics0301421525000850.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Close ties: How trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil

Author

Listed:
  • Cappelli, Federica
  • Carnazza, Giovanni

Abstract

The European Union's reliance on imported fossil fuels, especially oil, has been highlighted by the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, exposing vulnerabilities in energy security. This study examines the drivers of international oil dependency, emphasising technological and trade lock-ins. Employing complex network theory and panel data models, it evaluates trade patterns and the effectiveness of environmental policies in mitigating oil dependency across EU countries from 1999 to 2019. Results indicate that trade lock-ins deepen dependency, especially for countries with strong geopolitical ties to major oil exporters. Stringent environmental policies, including energy taxes and technology-push initiatives, are shown to facilitate the ecological transition, with public R&D investments in renewable energy technologies playing a pivotal role. Countries with a comparative advantage in low-carbon technology exports benefit most from such investments. Importantly, no evidence supports the green paradox, confirming that well-designed policies can harmonise decarbonization and economic stability. The findings underscore the need for EU-wide strategies to address disparities in energy dependency. Recommendations include increasing public investment in clean energy innovation, diversifying energy imports, and fostering intra-EU collaboration to capitalise on renewable technology export potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2025. "Close ties: How trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:202:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000850
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421525000850
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114578?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Zeeshan & Malik, Muhammad Yousaf & Latif, Kashmala & Jiao, Zhilun, 2020. "Heterogeneous effect of eco-innovation and human capital on renewable & non-renewable energy consumption: Disaggregate analysis for G-7 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Bointner, Raphael, 2014. "Innovation in the energy sector: Lessons learnt from R&D expenditures and patents in selected IEA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 733-747.
    3. Unruh, Gregory C., 2002. "Escaping carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 317-325, March.
    4. Hao, Xiaoqing, 2023. "Import competition and pressure in the international crude oil trade: A network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Bauer, Nico & Bosetti, Valentina & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Kitous, Alban & McCollum, David & Méjean, Aurélie & Rao, Shilpa & Turton, Hal & Paroussos, Leonidas & Ashina, Shuichi & Calvin, Katherine & Wa, 2015. "CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 243-256.
    6. Christopher S. P. Magee & Stephen P. Magee, 2008. "The United States is a Small Country in World Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 990-1004, November.
    7. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    8. Pasqualini, D. & Bassi, A.M., 2014. "Oil shale and climate policy in the shift to a low carbon and more resilient economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 168-176.
    9. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
    10. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    11. Costantini, Valeria & Crespi, Francesco, 2008. "Environmental regulation and the export dynamics of energy technologies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 447-460, June.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    13. Frederick van der Ploeg & Cees Withagen, 2015. "Global Warming and the Green Paradox: A Review of Adverse Effects of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 285-303.
    14. Galeotti, Marzio & Salini, Silvia & Verdolini, Elena, 2020. "Measuring environmental policy stringency: Approaches, validity, and impact on environmental innovation and energy efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Jacobsson, Staffan & Lauber, Volkmar, 2006. "The politics and policy of energy system transformation--explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 256-276, February.
    16. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    17. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Shen, Lei & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2017. "The roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade: An emergy and network analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 365-376.
    18. Barbieri, Nicolò, 2016. "Fuel prices and the invention crowding out effect: Releasing the automotive industry from its dependence on fossil fuel," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 222-234.
    19. An, Haizhong & Zhong, Weiqiong & Chen, Yurong & Li, Huajiao & Gao, Xiangyun, 2014. "Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 254-259.
    20. Nico Bauer & Christophe McGlade & Jérôme Hilaire & Paul Ekins, 2018. "Divestment prevails over the green paradox when anticipating strong future climate policies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 130-134, February.
    21. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: a supply side approach," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(4), pages 360-394, August.
    22. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    23. Kamyk, Jarosław & Kot-Niewiadomska, Alicja & Galos, Krzysztof, 2021. "The criticality of crude oil for energy security: A case of Poland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    24. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
    25. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Shahzad, Umer & Doğan, Buhari, 2022. "The role of environmental technology for energy demand and energy efficiency: Evidence from OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    26. Hübler, Michael, 2016. "A new trade network theory: What economists can learn from engineers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 115-126.
    27. Giovanni Peri, 2005. "Determinants of Knowledge Flows and Their Effect on Innovation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 308-322, May.
    28. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2023. "Crude oil, international trade and political stability: Do network relations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    29. Michael Lazarus & Harro van Asselt, 2018. "Fossil fuel supply and climate policy: exploring the road less taken," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 1-13, September.
    30. Grafton, R. Quentin & Kompas, Tom & Long, Ngo Van & To, Hang, 2014. "US biofuels subsidies and CO2 emissions: An empirical test for a weak and a strong green paradox," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 550-555.
    31. Nico Bauer & Valentina Bosetti & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Alban Kitous & David L Mccollum & Aurélie Méjean & Shilpa Rao & Hal Turton & Leonidas Paroussos & Shuichi Ashina & Katherine Calvin & Kenichi Wad, 2015. "CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies," Post-Print hal-01086076, HAL.
    32. Roger Fouquet, 2016. "Path dependence in energy systems and economic development," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 1-5, August.
    33. Borozan, Djula, 2019. "Unveiling the heterogeneous effect of energy taxes and income on residential energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 13-22.
    34. Peters, Michael & Schneider, Malte & Griesshaber, Tobias & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2012. "The impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies on technical change – Does the locus of policies matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1296-1308.
    35. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2012. "The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach to Global Warming," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016680, December.
    36. Richard York, 2012. "Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels?," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 441-443, June.
    37. Albrecht, Johan & Laleman, Ruben & Vulsteke, Elien, 2015. "Balancing demand-pull and supply-push measures to support renewable electricity in Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 267-277.
    38. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    39. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Stefan Rahmstorf & Ricarda Winkelmann, 2016. "Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 649-653, July.
    40. Muhammad Usman & Magdalena Radulescu & Daniel Balsalobre-Lorente & Abdul Rehman, 2023. "Investigation on the causality relationship between environmental innovation and energy consumption: Empirical evidence from EU countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(8), pages 3130-3159, December.
    41. Nemet, Gregory F., 2009. "Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 700-709, June.
    42. Xin-gang, Zhao & Wei, Wang & Jieying, Wang, 2022. "The policy effects of demand-pull and technology-push on the diffusion of wind power: A scenario analysis based on system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    43. Svenn Jensens & Kristina Mohlin & Karen Pittel & Thomas Sterner, 2015. "An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 246-265.
    44. Bogmans, Christian & Pescatori, Andrea & Prifti, Ervin, 2024. "The impact of climate policy on oil and gas investment: Evidence from firm-level data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    45. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong, 2013. "Causality between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 95-104.
    46. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2023. "The Multi-dimensional Oil Dependency Index (MODI) for the European Union," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    47. Chien, Taichen & Hu, Jin-Li, 2008. "Renewable energy: An efficient mechanism to improve GDP," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3035-3042, August.
    48. Du, Ruijin & Wang, Ya & Dong, Gaogao & Tian, Lixin & Liu, Yixiao & Wang, Minggang & Fang, Guochang, 2017. "A complex network perspective on interrelations and evolution features of international oil trade, 2002–2013," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 142-151.
    49. Consoli, Davide & Costantini, Valeria & Paglialunga, Elena, 2023. "We're in this together: Sustainable energy and economic competitiveness in the EU," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federica Cappelli & Giovanni Carnazza, 2025. "Close ties: how trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil," SEEDS Working Papers 0125, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Jan 2025.
    2. Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant, 2014. "Does Foreign Environmental Policy Influence Domestic Innovation? Evidence from the Wind Industry," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 391-413, July.
    3. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Clement Bonnet, 2020. "Measuring Knowledge with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," Working Papers hal-02971680, HAL.
    5. Clément Bonnet, 2016. "Measuring Knowledge with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-37, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Clément Bonnet, 2017. "Measuring Inventive Performance with Patent Data: an Application to Low Carbon Energy Technologies," Working Papers 1709, Chaire Economie du climat.
    7. Patricia Laurens & Christian Le Bas & Stéphane Lhuillery & Antoine Schoen, 2017. "The determinants of cleaner energy innovations of the world’s largest firms: the impact of firm learning and knowledge capital," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 311-333, May.
    8. Alena Miftakhova & Clément Renoir, 2021. "Economic Growth and Equity in Anticipation of Climate Policy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/355, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Elizabeth Baldwin & Yongyang Cai & Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To Build or Not to Build? Capital Stocks and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6884, CESifo.
    10. Don Grant & Tyler Hansen & Andrew Jorgenson & Wesley Longhofer, 2024. "A worldwide analysis of stranded fossil fuel assets’ impact on power plants’ CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Paul Lehmann & Patrik Söderholm, 2018. "Can Technology-Specific Deployment Policies Be Cost-Effective? The Case of Renewable Energy Support Schemes," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 475-505, October.
    12. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong, 2014. "How government policies affect the export dynamics of renewable energy technologies: A subsectoral analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 843-859.
    13. Malhotra, Abhishek & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Huenteler, Joern, 2019. "The role of inter-sectoral learning in knowledge development and diffusion: Case studies on three clean energy technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 464-487.
    14. Barbieri, Nicolò & Marzucchi, Alberto & Rizzo, Ugo, 2023. "Green technologies, interdependencies, and policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Jin, Wei, 2021. "Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Curci, Ylenia & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2016. "Investigating biofuels through network analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 60-72.
    17. Bongsuk Sung & Myung-Bae Yeom & Hong-Gi Kim, 2017. "Eco-Efficiency of Government Policy and Exports in the Bioenergy Technology Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-18, September.
    18. Nelson, Kelly P. & Parton, Lee C. & Brown, Zachary S., 2022. "Biofuels policy and innovation impacts: Evidence from biofuels and agricultural patent indicators," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    19. Chris Belmert Milindi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2023. "Impact of technological progress on carbon emissions in different country income groups," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1348-1382, August.
    20. Costantini, Valeria & Crespi, Francesco & Palma, Alessandro, 2017. "Characterizing the policy mix and its impact on eco-innovation: A patent analysis of energy-efficient technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 799-819.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:202:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525000850. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.