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A worldwide analysis of stranded fossil fuel assets’ impact on power plants’ CO2 emissions

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  • Don Grant

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Tyler Hansen

    (Dartmouth College)

  • Andrew Jorgenson

    (University of British Columbia
    Vilnius University)

  • Wesley Longhofer

    (Emory University)

Abstract

Will power plants emit less or more CO2 in anticipation of stronger climate policies that would strand fossil fuel reserves? Here, using a worldwide data source on individual power plants’ CO2 emissions and the value of countries’ at-risk fossil fuel assets, we show that between 2009 and 2018, plants emitted more CO2 in countries where more assets would be devalued under a 1.5 °C scenario, which we theorize is due to these countries’ regulatory leniency and plants’ vested interest in long-term fossil fuel contracts. Although the extra amount of carbon emitted each year trigged by imperiled assets is relatively small, it would exhaust a sizable portion of the electricity sector’s remaining carbon budget when added up over time. This is especially true in the U.S. and Russia where up to 16% and 12% of their budgets, respectively, could be spent within ten years due solely to the stranded asset effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Don Grant & Tyler Hansen & Andrew Jorgenson & Wesley Longhofer, 2024. "A worldwide analysis of stranded fossil fuel assets’ impact on power plants’ CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52036-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52036-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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