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Who turns the global thermostat and by how much?

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  • Rickels, Wilfried
  • Quaas, Martin F.
  • Ricke, Katharine
  • Quaas, Johannes
  • Moreno-Cruz, Juan
  • Smulders, Sjak

Abstract

Increasing attention is being given to the option of engineering the climate via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) as a potential component in future climate policies. We set up a quantitative model to analyze efficient levels of SRM deployment against the climatic and economic background conditions projected by the various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) baseline scenarios for the year 2050. The model combines three features of the data: i) SRM deployment is regionally uneven in the way it affects grid-cell temperature and precipitation, ii) temperature and precipitation affect Gross Value Added (GVA) at the grid-cell level and the effect for both takes the form of an inverted U-shape relationship, implying that optimal temperature and precipitation levels with respect to output do exist, and iii) different assumptions about economic growth and its distribution over regions, as projected by the SSPs, increase the relative share of global GVA for currently rather poor countries with high average temperatures. We find that in global terms, economically efficient levels of SRM are affected more by region-specific economic growth projections than by regional climate-change impacts. Globally, the economically efficient SRM level is proportional to the (global) GVA-weighted mean temperature increase, which varies considerably according to the various growth projections (for equal climatic background conditions). Achieving the optimal temperature in each scenario is constrained by the influence of SRM on precipitation.

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  • Rickels, Wilfried & Quaas, Martin F. & Ricke, Katharine & Quaas, Johannes & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Smulders, Sjak, 2020. "Who turns the global thermostat and by how much?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:91:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320301924
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104852
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Ghidoni & Anna Lou Abatayo & Valentina Bosetti & Marco Casari & Massimo Tavoni, 2023. "Governing Climate Geoengineering: Side Payments Are Not Enough," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(5), pages 1149-1177.
    2. Michael Finus & Francesco Furini, 2022. "Global Climate Governance in the Light of Geoengineering: A Shot in the Dark?," Graz Economics Papers 2022-02, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    3. Piergiuseppe Pezzoli & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2023. "SRM on the table: the role of geoengineering for the stability and effectiveness of climate coalitions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Juan Moreno-Cruz & Anthony Harding, 2022. "A Unifying Theory of Foreign Intervention in Domestic Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10172, CESifo.
    5. Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Harding, Anthony, 2023. "A Unifying Theory of Foreign Intervention in Domestic Climate Policy," RFF Working Paper Series 23-24, Resources for the Future.
    6. Irina Bakalova & Mariia Belaia, 2023. "Stability of Efficient International Agreements on Solar Geoengineering," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(3), pages 673-712, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate engineering; Solar radiation management; Governance; Climate-change winners and losers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

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