IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-05-65.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Economic Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Commodity Shocks, and Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN 3

Author

Listed:
  • Khamdan Rifa'i

    (Universitas Islam Negeri Kiai Haji Achmad Siddiq Jember, Indonesia.)

Abstract

This study examines the implications of the United States unconventional monetary policy, global commodity prices, and the oil price shock on monetary policy responses and economic growth in the ASEAN 3 countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The empirical evidence suggests that the shock from the United States unconventional monetary policy led to the change in ASEAN's monetary policy. The fluctuation of crude oil and global commodity prices considerably impacts ASEAN's monetary policy response 3. The Central Bank can use such evidence as a reference to alter monetary policy in reaction to the global oil price and the unconventional monetary policy of the United States. The government will also be able to foresee the impact of global oil and commodities prices and preserve ASEAN 3's economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Khamdan Rifa'i, 2023. "The Economic Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Commodity Shocks, and Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN 3," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 616-624, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-05-65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14748/7522
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14748
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Tumisang Loate & Nicola Viegi, 2020. "Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 435-471, December.
    4. Ribeiro, Rafael S.M. & McCombie, John S.L. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2020. "Does real exchange rate undervaluation really promote economic growth?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 408-417.
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2019. "Push factors and capital flows to emerging markets: why knowing your lender matters more than fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 133-149.
    6. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Risk spillovers and diversification between oil and non-ferrous metals during bear and bull market states," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Taiwo Onifade, Stephen & Gyamfi, Bright Akwasi & Haouas, Ilham & Bekun, Festus Victor, 2021. "Re-examining the roles of economic globalization and natural resources consequences on environmental degradation in E7 economies: Are human capital and urbanization essential components?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Clement Moyo & Pierre Le Roux, 2020. "Financial liberalisation, financial development and financial crises in SADC countries," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 477-494, April.
    9. Clement Moyo & Pierre Le Roux, 2020. "Financial development and economic growth in SADC countries: a panel study," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 71-89, October.
    10. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Li, Li, 2023. "Commodity prices volatility and economic growth: Empirical evidence from natural resources industries of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Kolasa, Marcin & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2020. "International spillovers of quantitative easing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.
    14. Mensi, Walid & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Volatility spillovers between strategic commodity futures and stock markets and portfolio implications: Evidence from developed and emerging economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    16. Zekeriya Yildirim & Mehmet Ivrendi, 2021. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, December.
    17. Kempa, Bernd & Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2017. "Spillover effects of debt and growth in the euro area: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    18. Ni, Niannian & Liu, Yulin, 2019. "Financial liberalization and income inequality: A meta-analysis based on cross-country studies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    21. Kerim Peren Arin & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Kyriacos Kyriacou & Nicola Spagnolo, 2020. "Financial Integration in the GCC Region: Market Size Versus National Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 309-316, April.
    22. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2019. "Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2926-2966.
    23. Peydró, José-Luis & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks’ Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," CEPR Discussion Papers 14988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Meng, Juan & Nie, He & Mo, Bin & Jiang, Yonghong, 2020. "Risk spillover effects from global crude oil market to China’s commodity sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    25. Johannes Bubeck & Angela Maddaloni & José‐Luis Peydró, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231, October.
    26. Wei, Honghong & Lahiri, Radhika, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in the presence of a trading relationship: A GVAR analysis of the NAFTA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 553-569.
    27. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Low Soo Wah & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2019. "Oil price shocks, global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and stock price in Malaysia: Factor augmented VAR approach," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3700-3732, January.
    28. Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Tajuddin Tajuddin & Pasrun Adam & Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun & La Ode Saidi, 2021. "Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 15-21.
    29. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2020. "Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 529-563, July.
    30. Robin Koepke, 2019. "What Drives Capital Flows To Emerging Markets? A Survey Of The Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 516-540, April.
    31. Dées, Stéphane & Galesi, Alessandro, 2021. "The Global Financial Cycle and US monetary policy in an interconnected world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    32. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    33. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    34. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    35. Xuan-Hoa Nghiem & Seema Narayan, 2021. "What Drives Persistently High Inflationary Pressures In Vietnam? Some Evidence From The New Keynesian Curve Framework," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(4), pages 517-540, December.
    36. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    37. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas, 2015. "Dynamic spillovers between commodity and currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-319.
    38. Kalcheva, Ivalina & Smith, Janet Kiholm & Smith, Richard L., 2020. "Institutional investment and the changing role of public equity markets: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    39. Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "Financial stress in lender countries and capital outflows from emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    40. Davis, J. Scott & Valente, Giorgio & van Wincoop, Eric, 2021. "Global drivers of gross and net capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    41. Jiang, Qisheng & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "How the fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty of China respond to global oil price volatility: A multi-regime-on-scale approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    42. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    43. Alexeev, Michael & Chih, Yao-Yu, 2021. "Energy price shocks and economic growth in the US: A state-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    44. Zakaria Yakubu & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Tirta Nugraha Mursitama & Abbas Mardani & Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Asan Ali Golam Hassan, 2020. "Financial Liberalisation, Political Stability, and Economic Determinants of Real Economic Growth in Kenya," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, July.
    45. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    46. Tao Hong & Nannan Yu & Servaas Storm & Bo Gao, 2019. "How much does regional integration contribute to growth? An analysis of the impact of domestic market integration on regional economic performance in China (1997–2011)," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3189-3210, January.
    47. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    48. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    49. Karl-Friedrich Israel & Sophia Latsos, 2020. "The impact of (un)conventional expansionary monetary policy on income inequality – lessons from Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(40), pages 4403-4420, August.
    50. Richard Waldron, 2019. "Financialization, Urban Governance and the Planning System: Utilizing ‘Development Viability’ as a Policy Narrative for the Liberalization of Ireland's Post‐Crash Planning System," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 685-704, July.
    51. Alexander Knobel & Andrey Lipin & Andrey Malokostov & David G. Tarr & Natalia Turdyeva, 2019. "Deep Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union: What are the Benefits of Successful Implementation or Wider Liberalization?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps41, Bank of Russia.
    52. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    53. Sun, Li & Wang, Yang, 2021. "Global economic performance and natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from pre and post COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    54. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olofin Sodik Adejonwo, 2019. "Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(2), pages 171-184, December.
    55. Muntasir Murshed & Kashif Abbass & Seemran Rashid, 2021. "Modelling renewable energy adoption across south Asian economies: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5425-5450, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ines Buono & Flavia Corneli & Enrica Di Stefano, 2024. "Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 17-34, April.
    2. Ledóchowski, Michał & Żuk, Piotr, 2022. "What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed's and ECB's balance sheet policies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    3. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek & Stracca, Livio & Strasser, Georg, 2020. "Monetary policy and its transmission in a globalised world," Working Paper Series 2407, European Central Bank.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    8. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2024. "Spillover effects of US monetary policy on emerging markets amidst uncertainty," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Yoshihiko Norimasa & Kazuki Ueda & Tomohiro Watanabe, 2021. "Emerging Economies' Vulnerability to Changes in Capital Flows: The Role of Global and Local Factors," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    11. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    12. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    13. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    14. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation," Working Paper Series 2796, European Central Bank.
    16. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    17. Bianchi, Benedetta & Galstyan, Vahagn & Herzberg, Valerie, 2022. "Global risk and portfolio flows to emerging markets: Evidence from irish-resident investment funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    18. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Felici, Marco & Kenny, Geoff & Friz, Roberta, 2023. "Consumer savings behaviour at low and negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP Growth; Interest Rates; VECM; Spillover Effect; Global Commodity Price; World’s Oil Price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-05-65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.