IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/coecpo/v44y2026i3p549-575.html

The hole in the doughnut: Formalizing and testing a key model of degrowth

Author

Listed:
  • Ashruta Acharya
  • Vincent Geloso
  • Aleksander Psurek

Abstract

Degrowth scholars often claim that capitalism generates social and ecological imbalances, as captured by Kate Raworth's leading doughnut model. We formalize this model using social and environmental indices and measure imbalances using their coefficient of variation. We then test if capitalism, proxied by economic freedom, is associated with greater imbalances across multiple datasets, specifications, and functional forms. We find little support for the model's central prediction. If anything, the relationship often runs in the opposite direction. These results suggest that the doughnut model, minimally as here formalized, is not empirically supported and may provide a limited guide for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashruta Acharya & Vincent Geloso & Aleksander Psurek, 2026. "The hole in the doughnut: Formalizing and testing a key model of degrowth," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(3), pages 549-575, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:44:y:2026:i:3:p:549-575
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.70031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70031
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/coep.70031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Savin, Ivan & van den Bergh, Jeroen, 2024. "Reviewing studies of degrowth: Are claims matched by data, methods and policy analysis?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Bjørnskov, Christian, 2024. "Economic freedom and the greenhouse gas Kuznets curve," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Pierre Desrochers & Vincent Geloso & Joanna Szurmak, 2021. "Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 2: Critical Analysis," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 808-829, March.
    4. Isaac K. Ofori & Francesco Figari & Nathanael Ojong, 2023. "Towards sustainability: The relationship between foreign direct investment, economic freedom and inclusive green growth," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/023, African Governance and Development Institute..
    5. Christian Bjørnskov, 2018. "Do Liberalising Reforms Harm the Environment? Evidence from the Post†Communist Transition," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 22-37, February.
    6. Isaac K. Ofori & Francesco Figari & Nathanael Ojong, 2023. "Towards sustainability: The relationship between foreign direct investment, economic freedom and inclusive green growth," Working Papers 23/023, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Desrochers, Pierre, 2007. "How did the Invisible Hand Handle Industrial Waste? By-product Development before the Modern Environmental Era," Enterprise & Society, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 348-374, June.
    8. Andrew L. Fanning & Kate Raworth, 2025. "Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries monitors a world out of balance," Nature, Nature, vol. 646(8083), pages 47-56, October.
    9. Cephas Naanwaab, 2018. "Does Economic Freedom Promote Human Development? New Evidence from a Cross-National Study," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(3), pages 183-198, July-Sept.
    10. Ofori, Isaac K. & Figari, Francesco & Ojong, Nathanael, 2023. "Towards sustainability: The relationship between foreign direct investment, economic freedom and inclusive green growth," MPRA Paper 116956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Timo Boppart & Michael Peters & Matthew Schwartzman & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2025. "A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 33634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Higgs, Robert, 1992. "Wartime Prosperity? A Reassessment of the U.S. Economy in the 1940s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 41-60, March.
    13. Indra de Soysa, 2022. "Economic freedom vs. egalitarianism: An empirical test of weak & strong sustainability, 1970–2017," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 236-268, May.
    14. Olson, Mancur, 1963. "Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 529-552, December.
    15. Kallis, Giorgos, 2011. "In defence of degrowth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(5), pages 873-880, March.
    16. Daniel W. O’Neill & Andrew L. Fanning & William F. Lamb & Julia K. Steinberger, 2018. "A good life for all within planetary boundaries," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(2), pages 88-95, February.
    17. Böhmelt, Tobias & Ward, Hugh & Bernauer, Thomas, 2025. "Do welfare states have lower carbon emissions? The importance of state capacity in lower-income countries," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 428-448, September.
    18. Pierre Desrochers, 2010. "The environmental responsibility of business is to increase its profits (by creating value within the bounds of private property rights)," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(1), pages 161-204, February.
    19. Kakwani, N., 1993. "Performance in living standards : An international comparison," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 307-336, August.
    20. William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1973. "Is Growth Obsolete?," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance, pages 509-564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Desrochers, Pierre & Haight, Colleen E., 2014. "Squandered profit opportunities? Some historical perspective on industrial waste and the Porter Hypothesis," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 179-189.
    22. Federico Savini, 2025. "Degrowth as ideology: Making values for the soil of Amsterdam," Environmental Values, , vol. 34(4-5), pages 327-347, October.
    23. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2023. "The Political Economics of Green Transitions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(3), pages 1863-1906.
    24. Prados de la Escosura,Leandro, 2022. "Human Development and the Path to Freedom," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108708586, August.
    25. Callais, Justin T. & Geloso, Vincent J. & Plemmons, Alicia M. & Wagner, Gary A., 2025. "Institutions Matter: Economic freedom and income mobility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    26. Amie Gaye & Jeni Klugman & Milorad Kovacevic & Sarah Twigg & Eduardo Zambrano, 2010. "Measuring Key Disparities in Human Development: The Gender Inequality Index," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-46, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    27. Rati Ram, 2014. "Measuring economic freedom: a comparison of two major sources," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 852-856, August.
    28. Singh, Mudit Kumar, 2023. "What is state capacity and how does it matter for energy transition?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    29. Pritchett, Lant, 2022. "National development delivers: And how! And how?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    30. Colin Doran & Thomas Stratmann, 2020. "The Relationship between Economic Freedom and Poverty Rates: Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 176(4), pages 686-707.
    31. Stroup, Michael D., 2007. "Economic Freedom, Democracy, and the Quality of Life," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
    32. Devereux, John, 2021. "The Absolution Of History: Cuban Living Standards After 60 Years Of Revolutionary Rule," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 5-36, March.
    33. Pierre Desrochers & Vincent Geloso & Joanna Szurmak, 2021. "Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 786-807, March.
    34. N. Kakwani, 1996. "Income Inequality, Welfare and Poverty in Ukraine," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 663-691, October.
    35. Raymond, Leigh, 2004. "Economic Growth as Environmental Policy? Reconsidering the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 327-348, December.
    36. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 639-643, August.
    37. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    38. Pierre Desrochers & Samuli Leppälä, 2010. "Industrial Symbiosis: Old Wine in Recycled Bottles? Some Perspective from the History of Economic and Geographical Thought," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 33(3), pages 338-361, July.
    39. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    40. Gwartney, James & Lawson, Robert, 2003. "The concept and measurement of economic freedom," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 405-430, September.
    41. Jason Hickel & Giorgos Kallis, 2020. "Is Green Growth Possible?," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 469-486, June.
    42. Dean, James & Geloso, Vincent, 2022. "Economic freedom improves income mobility: evidence from Canadian provinces, 1982–2018," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 807-826, October.
    43. Dean, James & Geloso, Vincent, 2024. "Poverty spells and economic freedom: Canadian evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 282-296.
    44. Johan Rockström & Will Steffen & Kevin Noone & Åsa Persson & F. Stuart Chapin & Eric F. Lambin & Timothy M. Lenton & Marten Scheffer & Carl Folke & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Björn Nykvist & Cynthia , 2009. "A safe operating space for humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 472-475, September.
    45. Justin T. Callais & Vincent Geloso, 2023. "Intergenerational income mobility and economic freedom," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(3), pages 732-753, January.
    46. Vincent Geloso, 2022. "Statogenic climate change? Julian Simon and Institutions," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 343-358, September.
    47. Rutar, Tibor & Rutar, Minea, 2025. "Liberalizing reforms do not cause suicide: Causal estimation using matching, 1980–2019," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 272-289.
    48. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    49. Thomas Wiedmann & Manfred Lenzen & Lorenz T. Keyßer & Julia K. Steinberger, 2020. "Scientists’ warning on affluence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    50. Matthew Thompson & Charlotte Cator & XDavid Beel & Ian Rees Jones & Martin Jones & Kevin Morgan, 2024. "Amsterdam’s circular economy at a world-ecological crossroads: postcapitalist degrowth or the next regime of capital accumulation?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 17(3), pages 535-550.
    51. Lomborg, Bjorn, 2020. "Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    52. Francesco Forte & James M. Buchanan, 1961. "The Evaluation of Public Services," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(2), pages 107-107.
    53. Indra de Soysa, 2021. "Economic governance and homicide: Some theory and empirics, 1990–2017," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 1004-1017, September.
    54. Alvarez, Sean P. & Geloso, Vincent & Scheck, Macy, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between economic freedom and development to account for statistical deception by autocratic regimes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    55. Sam Green & Andrew Melnyk & Dennis Powers, 2002. "Is economic freedom necessary for technology diffusion?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 907-910.
    56. Graafland, Johan, 2020. "Contingencies in the relationship between economic freedom and human development: the role of generalized trust," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 271-286, June.
    57. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Author Correction: Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7732), pages 26-26, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Callais, Justin T. & Geloso, Vincent J. & Plemmons, Alicia M. & Wagner, Gary A., 2025. "Institutions Matter: Economic freedom and income mobility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Migheli, Matteo, 2025. "Economic freedom and gender health gap in the E.U," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Infante-Amate, Juan & Travieso, Emiliano & Aguilera, Eduardo, 2024. "Unsustainable prosperity? Decoupling wellbeing, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Miller, Daniel C. & Cheek, Jennifer Zavaleta & Mansourian, Stephanie & Wildburger, Christoph, 2022. "Forests, trees and the eradication of poverty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Alvarez, Sean P. & Geloso, Vincent & Scheck, Macy, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between economic freedom and development to account for statistical deception by autocratic regimes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Cappelli, Federica & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2025. "What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Cappelli, Federica & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "What role for profits and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?," IPE Working Papers 245/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Geloso, Vincent & Hyde, Kelly & Murtazashvili, Ilia, 2026. "Diseases of commerce: Unbundling economic freedom and public health," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Van Eynde, Reo & Dillman, Kevin J. & Vogel, Jefim & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2026. "What is required for a post-growth model?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. Vincent Geloso, 2022. "Statogenic climate change? Julian Simon and Institutions," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 343-358, September.
    11. Aydin, Mehmet & Degirmenci, Tunahan & Erdem, Azad & Sogut, Yasin & Demirtas, Nazli, 2024. "From public policy towards the green energy transition: Do economic freedom, economic globalization, environmental policy stringency, and material productivity matter?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    12. Castro, Damaris & Bleys, Brent, 2023. "Do people think they have enough? A subjective income sufficiency assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. Hametner, Markus, 2022. "Economics without ecology: How the SDGs fail to align socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    14. Ofori, Pamela E. & Ofori, Isaac K. & Castelnovo, Paolo, 2024. "Effects of Innovation and Economic Freedom on Female Economic Inclusion," MPRA Paper 121244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Federica Cappelli, 2021. "Exploring the theoretical link between profitability and luxury emissions," Working Papers PKWP2114, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Gbolonyo, Emmanuel Y. & Ofori, Isaac K. & Ojong, Nathanael, 2024. "Does Economic Complexity Promote Inclusive Green Growth," EconStor Preprints 298785, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Cunico, Giovanni & Gary, Michael Shayne, 2026. "Fragmentation and complexity as obstacles to the beyond GDP transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    18. Hassan Guenichi & Neji Al-Eid Omri, 2025. "Threshold effects of institutional quality on FDI-economic growth nexus: a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 19097-19119, August.
    19. Kyei Emmanuel Yeboah & Kashif Abbass & Seidu Abdulai Jamatutu & Bo Feng & Junwen Feng, 2025. "Achieving sustainability: Unravelling the role of financial development and foreign direct investment in sub‐Saharan Africa," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3531-3549, November.
    20. Richard J. Cebula & Steven B. Caudill & Franklin G. Mixon Jr. & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2025. "Does Greater Economic Freedom Elevate the Labor Force Participation Rate? State-Level Panel Data Evidence for the U.S," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 116-129, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:44:y:2026:i:3:p:549-575. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/weaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.