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Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes

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  • Pierre Desrochers
  • Vincent Geloso
  • Joanna Szurmak

Abstract

Objective This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of the outcome of Paul Ehrlich and Stephen Schneider's counteroffer (1995) to economist Julian Simon following Ehrlich's loss in the famous Ehrlich‐Simon wager on economic growth and the price of natural resources (1980‐1990). Methods Literature review, data gathering and critical assessment of the indicators and proxies suggested or implied by Ehrlich and Schneider. Critical assessment of Simon's reasons for rejecting the bet. Data gathering for his alternative indicators. Results For indicators that can be measured satisfactorily, the balance of the outcomes favors the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period. Extending the timeline and accounting for the measurement limitations or dubious relevance of many of their indicators, however, shifts the balance of the evidence towards Simon's perspective. Conclusion Although the outcomes favour the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period, Ehrlich and Schneider.s indicators yielded mixed results in the long run. Simon's preferred indicators of direct human welfare would yield largely favourable outcomes if the bet were extended into the present. Based on this, we claim that Simon's optimistic perspective was once again largely validated.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Desrochers & Vincent Geloso & Joanna Szurmak, 2021. "Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 786-807, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:2:p:786-807
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12928
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    3. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and … Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397.
    4. Daniel Pauly & Dirk Zeller, 2016. "Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, April.
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    2. Vincent Geloso, 2022. "Statogenic climate change? Julian Simon and Institutions," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 343-358, September.
    3. Peter J. Boettke & Christopher J. Coyne, 2022. "The economic logic behind the ultimate resource," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 303-314, September.

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