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Remittance and Migration Prospects for the Twenty-First Century

Author

Listed:
  • Frédéric DOCQUIER

    () (Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Joël MACHADO

    (FERDI)

Abstract

Remittances have been increasingly perceived as offering a vital lifeline for millions of poor households in developing countries. Their future will be affected by the evolution of emigration rates and cross-country disparities in income. In this paper, we provide integrated projections of income, population, migration stocks and remittances for the 21st century under alternative technological and policy scenarios. Our quantitative analysis reveals that remittances will be a sustainable source of funding for low-income countries. Due to rising income disparities and the take-off of emerging countries, their share in GDP is likely to increase in the future, notwithstanding the fact that population growth will be greater in low-income countries. The average remittances-to-GDP ratio will be constant in our worst-case scenario, multiplied by 3 in our baseline, and by 10 in our best-case scenario. The latter assumes that the BRIC’s catch up with high-income countries and open their borders to immigration, and a constant propensity to remit.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric DOCQUIER & Joël MACHADO, 2015. "Remittance and Migration Prospects for the Twenty-First Century," Working Papers P133, FERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2262
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Beine & Fréderic Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2008. "Brain Drain and Human Capital Formation in Developing Countries: Winners and Losers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 631-652, April.
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    23. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5400 is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. repec:kap:jecgro:v:23:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10887-017-9153-z is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marco Delogu & Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2018. "Globalizing labor and the world economy: the role of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 223-258, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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