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Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

Author

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  • Frédéric Docquier

    () (FNRS and IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Joël Machado

    () (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)

Abstract

Abstract This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the twenty first century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for interdependencies between socio-demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the ‘high-fertility’ population prospects of the United Nations, assumes constant education and migration policies, long-run absolute convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) between emerging and high-income countries, and the absence of economic take-off in Africa. It predicts a rise in the income share of Asia (from 37 to 58% of the world income) and in the demographic share of Africa (from 10 to 29% of the world adult population). Over the twenty first century, the worldwide proportion of adult migrants will increase by less than 1% point (from 3.5 to 4.3%). Keeping its immigration policy unchanged, the 15 members of the European Union will see their average immigration rate increase from 7.4 to 18.2%. In Italy, the immigration pressure will increase fourfold. On the contrary, immigration rates will be fairly stable in the non-European, high-income countries. Then, we assess the sensitivity of our projections to changes in migration policies, TFP disparities, fertility and education. Large increases in the average European (and Italian) immigration rates are obtained under all the scenarios. More than ever, the management of immigration will represent a major societal challenge for European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2017. "Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(2), pages 125-149, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0054-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40797-017-0054-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thu Hien Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2018003, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Papers P223, FERDI.
    3. Baldoni, Edoardo & Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2018. "Immigrant workforce and labour productivity in Italian agriculture: a farm-level analysis," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 6(3), May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income prospects; Population prospects; Migration; World economy; Growth; Inequality;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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