Income Disparities, Population and Migration Flows Over the Twenty First Century

This paper provides worldwide projections of population, educational attainment, international migration and income for the twenty first century. We develop and parametrize a dynamic, stylized model of the world economy that accounts for interdependencies between socio-demographic and economic variables. Our baseline scenario is in line with the ‘high-fertility’ population prospects of the United Nations, assumes constant education and migration policies, long-run absolute convergence in total factor productivity (TFP) between emerging and high-income countries, and the absence of economic take-off in Africa. It predicts a rise in the income share of Asia (from 37 to 58% of the world income) and in the demographic share of Africa (from 10 to 29% of the world adult population). Over the twenty first century, the worldwide proportion of adult migrants will increase by less than 1% point (from 3.5 to 4.3%). Keeping its immigration policy unchanged, the 15 members of the European Union will see their average immigration rate increase from 7.4 to 18.2%. In Italy, the immigration pressure will increase fourfold. On the contrary, immigration rates will be fairly stable in the non-European, high-income countries. Then, we assess the sensitivity of our projections to changes in migration policies, TFP disparities, fertility and education. Large increases in the average European (and Italian) immigration rates are obtained under all the scenarios. More than ever, the management of immigration will represent a major societal challenge for European countries.