Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
AbstractDoes faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Other versions of this item:
- Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do output contractions trigger democratic change?," CEPR Discussion Papers 633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Burke, Paul J. & Leigh, Andrew, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," IZA Discussion Papers 4808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Growth and democratic change: there is no free lunch
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-05 13:22:00
- Ger Ã¶kad tillvÃ¤xt demokratisering?
by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2010-03-26 04:31:44
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