Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
AbstractDoes faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Other versions of this item:
- Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do output contractions trigger democratic change?," CEPR Discussion Papers 633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Burke, Paul J. & Leigh, Andrew, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," IZA Discussion Papers 4808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zak, Paul J. & Feng, Yi, 2003. "A dynamic theory of the transition to democracy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-25, September.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
NBER Working Papers
11205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001.
"Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
- Joshua Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 8456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Dehn, Jan, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2426, The World Bank.
- Andrew Leigh, 2004.
"Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty in Developing Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, January.
- Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty in developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
- Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009.
"Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, December.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Growth and democratic change: there is no free lunch
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-05 13:22:00
- Ger Ã¶kad tillvÃ¤xt demokratisering?
by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2010-03-26 04:31:44
- Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2011.
"Food Prices and Political Instability,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3544, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Ebeke & Mireille Ntsama Etoundi & Thierry Yogo, 2012.
"Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?,"
- Christian EBEKE & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2011. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201121, CERDI.
- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012.
"The Golden Hello and Political Transitions,"
KOF Working papers
12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Toke, A.S. & Albornoz, F. & Gassebner, M., 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1241, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Martin Gassebner, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3957, CESifo Group Munich.
- Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 17, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Anke Hoeffler & Robert H. Bates & Ghada Fayad, 2012. "Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited," IMF Working Papers 12/295, International Monetary Fund.
- Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Maarek & Michael Dorsch & Karl Dunz, 2012. "Macro Shocks, Regulatory Quality and Costly Political Action," THEMA Working Papers 2012-41, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2012.
"Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 389-399, May.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," Working Papers 2013-18, FEDEA.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Marcus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil price shocks, income and democracy," Economics Working Papers 1351, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011.
"Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp1091, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," NBER Working Papers 17601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caselli, Francesco & Tesei, Andrea, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul J Burke, 2011.
"Economic Growth and Political Survival,"
Departmental Working Papers
2011-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- David I. Stern, 2011. "From Correlation to Granger Causality," Crawford School Research Papers 1113, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 13/69, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.