Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
AbstractDoes faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change. (JEL D72, E23, E32, O11, O17, O47)
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Other versions of this item:
- Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do output contractions trigger democratic change?," CEPR Discussion Papers 633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Burke, Paul J. & Leigh, Andrew, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," IZA Discussion Papers 4808, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Growth and democratic change: there is no free lunch
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-05 13:22:00
- Ger Ã¶kad tillvÃ¤xt demokratisering?
by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2010-03-26 04:31:44
- Marcus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011.
"Oil price shocks, income and democracy,"
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1351, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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- Christian EBEKE & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI & Thierry YOGO, 2011.
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- Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Ebeke & Mireille Ntsama Etoundi & Thierry Yogo, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers halshs-00608128, HAL.
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- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," KOF Working papers 12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- David I. Stern, 2011. "From Correlation to Granger Causality," Crawford School Research Papers 1113, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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3544, CESifo Group Munich.
- Paul Maarek & Michael Dorsch & Karl Dunz, 2012. "Macro Shocks, Regulatory Quality and Costly Political Action," THEMA Working Papers 2012-41, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.
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