Economic Growth and Political Survival
AbstractUsing data for 160 countries for the period 1963-2001, this paper examines the short-run relationship between economic growth and changes in national leader. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, I use exogenous variation in commodity export prices, export partner incomes, precipitation, and temperature to instrument for a country's rate of economic growth. The results indicate that more rapid economic growth increases the short-run likelihood that national leaders will retain their positions. The findings are similar for both democracies and autocracies and indicate that faster economic growth reduces the likelihoods of both regular leader exits and irregular leader exits such as coups. The results also suggest that stronger economic growth reduces the likelihood that national leaders employ oppressive tactics against opponents.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-06.
Length: 87 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/
More information through EDIRC
economic growth; politics; political survival; political change; leader turnover;
Other versions of this item:
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2011-06-11 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-POL-2011-06-11 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deaton, A-S & Miller, R-I, 1995.
"International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance, and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Princeton Studies in International Economics
79, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
- Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996.
"Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1996.
"Wealthier is Healthier,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 841-868.
- Heston, Alan, 1994. "A brief review of some problems in using national accounts data in level of output comparisons and growth studies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-52, June.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Leigh, 2004.
"Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
485, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Shekhar Aiyar & Rodney Ramcharan, 2010. "What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?," IMF Working Papers 10/225, International Monetary Fund.
- Besley, Timothy J. & Kudamatsu, Masayuki, 2007.
"Making Autocracy Work,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Timothy Besley & Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2007. "Making autocracy work," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Timothy Besley & Masayuki Kudamatsu, 2007. "Making Autocracy Work," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 48, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Barro, Robert J, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010.
"Do output contractions trigger democratic change?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
633, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Yared, Pierre, 2005.
"Income and Democracy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
- Fuller, Wayne A, 1977. "Some Properties of a Modification of the Limited Information Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(4), pages 939-53, May.
- Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman, 2003. "Weak Instruments: Diagnosis and Cures in Empirical Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 118-125, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976.
"The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2001. "Are Ceos Rewarded For Luck? The Ones Without Principals Are," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 901-932, August.
- Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2002. "New Evidence on the Politics and Economics of Multiparty Cabinets Duration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(3), pages 249-79, August.
- Olson, Mancur, 1963. "Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(04), pages 529-552, December.
- Gallego, M. & Pitchik, C., 2004.
"An economic theory of leadership turnover,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2361-2382, December.
- Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2007.
"Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War,"
NBER Working Papers
13102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
- Jones, Benjamin & Olken, Benjamin, 2007. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," CEPR Discussion Papers 6298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996.
" Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007.
"International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Economics Working Papers
1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, 05.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009. "International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2009-37, FEDEA.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Clarke, G. & Groff, A. & Keefer , P. & Walsh, P., 2001. "New tools in comparative political economy: The database of political institutions," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125517, Tilburg University.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
- Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2009. "Do Leaders Affect Government Spending Priorities?," NBER Working Papers 15368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 24-40, April.
- Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2013. "Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-009, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
- Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.