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Economic Growth and Political Survival

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  • Paul J Burke

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Abstract

Using data for 160 countries for the period 1963-2001, this paper examines the short-run relationship between economic growth and changes in national leader. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, I use exogenous variation in commodity export prices, export partner incomes, precipitation, and temperature to instrument for a country's rate of economic growth. The results indicate that more rapid economic growth increases the short-run likelihood that national leaders will retain their positions. The findings are similar for both democracies and autocracies and indicate that faster economic growth reduces the likelihoods of both regular leader exits and irregular leader exits such as coups. The results also suggest that stronger economic growth reduces the likelihood that national leaders employ oppressive tactics against opponents.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2011/wp_econ_2011_06.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2011-06.

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Length: 87 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2011-06

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Keywords: economic growth; politics; political survival; political change; leader turnover;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2013. "Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-009, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  2. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
  3. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.

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