Do output contractions trigger democratic change?
AbstractDoes faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 633.
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
economic growth; democratization; weather; commodity prices;
Other versions of this item:
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
- O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-13 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- Growth and democratic change: there is no free lunch
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-05 13:22:00
- Ger Ã¶kad tillvÃ¤xt demokratisering?
by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2010-03-26 04:31:44
- Paul Maarek & Michael Dorsch & Karl Dunz, 2012. "Macro Shocks, Regulatory Quality and Costly Political Action," THEMA Working Papers 2012-41, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Luca Marchiori & Jean-Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective," Working Papers 17, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Paul J Burke, 2011.
"Economic Growth and Political Survival,"
Departmental Working Papers
2011-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Martin Gassebner & Facundo Albornoz & Toke S. Aidt, 2012.
"The Golden Hello and Political Transitions,"
KOF Working papers
12-316, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Martin Gassebner, 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," CESifo Working Paper Series 3957, CESifo Group Munich.
- Aidt, Toke & Albornoz, Facundo & Gassebner, Martin, 2010. "The Golden Halo and Political Transitions," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 48, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Toke, A.S. & Albornoz, F. & Gassebner, M., 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1241, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011.
"Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy,"
School of Economics Working Papers
2011-11, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011.
"Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp1091, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," NBER Working Papers 17601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caselli, Francesco & Tesei, Andrea, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8662, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 13/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Ebeke & Mireille Ntsama Etoundi & Thierry Yogo, 2012.
"Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?,"
- Christian EBEKE & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI & Thierry YOGO, 2011. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201121, CERDI.
- Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2011.
"Food Prices and Political Instability,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3544, CESifo Group Munich.
- David I. Stern, 2011. "From Correlation to Granger Causality," Crawford School Research Papers 1113, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Anke Hoeffler & Robert H. Bates & Ghada Fayad, 2012. "Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited," IMF Working Papers 12/295, International Monetary Fund.
- International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.