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Do output contractions trigger democratic change?

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  • Paul J. Burke
  • Andrew Leigh

Abstract

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 633.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:633

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Keywords: economic growth; democratization; weather; commodity prices;

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Blog mentions

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  1. Growth and democratic change: there is no free lunch
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-05 13:22:00
  2. Ger ökad tillväxt demokratisering?
    by Niclas Berggren in Nonicoclolasos on 2010-03-26 04:31:44
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Cited by:
  1. Marcus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Oil price shocks, income and democracy," Economics Working Papers 1351, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Francesco Caselli & Andrea Tesei, 2011. "Resource Windfalls, Political Regimes, and Political Stability," CEP Discussion Papers dp1091, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Paul J Burke, 2011. "Economic Growth and Political Survival," Departmental Working Papers 2011-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  4. Christian EBEKE & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI & Thierry YOGO, 2011. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201121, CERDI.
  5. Toke, A.S. & Albornoz, F. & Gassebner, M., 2012. "The Golden Hello and Political Transitions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1241, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. David I. Stern, 2011. "From Correlation to Granger Causality," Crawford School Research Papers 1113, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2011. "Food Prices and Political Instability," CESifo Working Paper Series 3544, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Paul Maarek & Michael Dorsch & Karl Dunz, 2012. "Macro Shocks, Regulatory Quality and Costly Political Action," THEMA Working Papers 2012-41, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  9. Almer, Christian & Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy & oechslin, Manuel, 2011. "Income shocks and social unrest: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 34426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.

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