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Economic Growth and Political Survival

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  • Burke Paul J.

    ()
    (Australian National University)

Abstract

Using data for 162 countries for the period 1962-2006, this paper examines the importance of the national economic growth rate for the ability of a national leader to retain his or her position. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, I use commodity prices, export partner incomes, precipitation, and temperature to instrument for a country’s growth rate. The results indicate that faster economic growth increases the short-run likelihood that leaders will remain in office. The results are robust to controlling for a host of leader-, party-, and country-level variables. The effect of growth on the likelihood of leader exits appears to be generally similar across both democracies and autocracies. Economic growth has the largest impact on the likelihood of regular leader exits rather than irregular exits such as coups. Evidence is also presented on whether economic growth affects the likelihood that leaders employ oppressive tactics against opponents.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 1-43

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:5

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
  2. Rosa C. Hayes & Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2013. "Attribution Error in Economic Voting: Evidence from Trade Shocks," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-009, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  3. Paul J. Burke, 2014. "Green Pricing in the Asia Pacific: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?," CCEP Working Papers 1409, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.

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