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An Economic Theory of Leadership Turnover

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  • Maria Gallego
  • Carolyn Pitchik

Abstract

In an infinite horizon model, a leader of a group of citizens exerts effort in each period to maintain a public good that enhances the profits of a group of kingmakers. In each period, the kingmakers decide whether to overthrow the leader so as to have a chance of becoming the leader. Consistent with the empirical literature, we find that (1) leadership turnover occurs when the kingmakers\\' expected earnings are low; (2) leadership turnover declines with duration in office; (3) leadership turnover declines as the technology for providing the public good improves; (4) leadership turnover increases as the number of kingmakers increases.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number pitchik-99-01.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 09 Sep 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:pitchik-99-01

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Keywords: coups d\'état; kingmakers; hazard rate; dynamic; stochastic games;

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  1. Edward J Green & Robert H Porter, 1997. "Noncooperative Collusion Under Imperfect Price Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1147, David K. Levine.
  2. repec:fth:coluec:530 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Alberto Alesina & Sule Ozler & Nouriel Roubini & Phillip Swagel, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joshua Greene & Delano Villanueva, 1991. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 33-58, March.
  5. Martin C. McGuire & Mancur Olson Jr., 1996. "The Economics of Autocracy and Majority Rule: The Invisible Hand and the Use of Force," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 72-96, March.
  6. M. E. Gallego, 1998. "Economic Performance and Leadership Accountability: An Econometric Analysis," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 249-296, November.
  7. Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson, 1999. "A Theory of Political Transitions," Working papers 99-26, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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