Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and New Evidence on Coups D'�tat
AbstractWe present a model of coups in autocracies. Assuming that policy choices cannot be observed but are correlated with the short-run performance of the economy we find that: (a) the threat of a coup disciplines autocrats; (b) coups are more likely in recessions; (c) increasing per capita income has an ambiguous effect on the probability of a coup. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence. On average, one recession in the previous year increases the probability of a coup attempt by 47 percent. By contrast, the effect of the level of per capita income is weak. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Economics and Politics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (07)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985
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- George Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2005.
"The Killing Game: Reputation and Knowledge in Non-Democratic Succession,"
Economics Working Papers
0054, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- Egorov, Georgy & Sonin, Konstantin, 2005. "The Killing Game: Reputation and Knowledge in Non-Democratic Succession," CEPR Discussion Papers 5092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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