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International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Markus Bruckner
  • Antonio Ciccone

Abstract

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1008.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1008

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Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; commodity prices; civil war;

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  13. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Ciccone, Antonio, 2008. "Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 7081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Angus Deaton, 2005. "ERRATUM: Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-395, May.
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