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International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Markus Bruckner
  • Antonio Ciccone

Abstract

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Bruckner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 1008, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sub-Saharan Africa; commodity prices; civil war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O0 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - General
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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